Abstract
Huangpu River floodplain is historically vulnerable to flooding due to its location in the path of tropical cyclones, low elevation, relatively flat topography, rapid changes in sea level and fast rate of land subsidence due to urbanization. This paper presents a scenario-based study that investigates the fluvial flood potentials in the Huangpu River floodplain. Flood scenarios with return periods of 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1,000 years were designed to cover the probable situations. Further, a flood inundation model (FloodMap) that tightly couples a river flow model with a 1D solution of the full form of the St. Venant equations and a 2D floodplain flow model was used to predict the river flow and inundation extents. Flood characteristics obtained from the simulations were used in the exposure analysis to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible land uses under different scenarios. Results suggest that overtopping inundation mainly occurs within 1–2 km of the banks of the Huangpu River, with larger inundation extent predicted in the upper and middle reaches of the channel, a result of varying protection levels from relatively rural upstream to high urbanized floodplain in the vicinity of the middle reaches.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation in China (Grant No: 41201550, 41071324, 40730526), the Humanities and Social Science Project of Education Ministry (Grant No: 12YJCZH257), Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant No: 13ZZ035, 13YZ061), Key Subject Developing Project by Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant No: J50402). We would like to thank Professor Wu Jianping for providing Shanghai land-use data in 2006. We extend these thanks to anonymous reviewers for their very constructive and helpful comments.
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Yin, J., Yu, D., Yin, Z. et al. Multiple scenario analyses of Huangpu River flooding using a 1D/2D coupled flood inundation model. Nat Hazards 66, 577–589 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0501-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0501-1