Abstract
Popular hope theories treat hope as an expectancy-based construct, with individuals more hopeful the greater their perceived likelihood of success. Consequently, the distinction between hope and other expectancy-based concepts (e.g., optimism) is unclear. The present research aims to identify the unique nature of hope, suggesting hope is invoked in particular when expectations of positive outcomes are low. As long as there is a possibility of those outcomes eventuating, individuals highly invested in them are more likely to hope; but with greater probability hope tends to align with optimism. In Study 1, for supporters of bottom-tier football teams strongly invested in the hoped-for outcome of their team winning, hope’s relationship with likelihood was cubic, accelerating with mere possibility; contrastingly, for optimism the relationship was linear. Study 2 replicated these findings for voters’ hope in state election outcomes. Hope is distinct from optimism and positive expectation; hope is tapped into when odds are low yet individuals are highly invested in the outcome.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
In line with other writers’ warning against making data fit a pre-defined definition of hope (Tong et al. 2010), we will investigate how hope fits individuals’ actual usage of the term. However, the term hope is not precise; for example it is often used to express a wish or desire (e.g., I would hope so), or used in the ideological sense of “it is my hope”, rather than a goal focused, possible and meaningful hope. While hope can represent an objective assessment of hope (e.g., there is hope), this research focuses on the usages of hope whereby individuals are actively hoping. Actively hoping does not imply a sense of personal agency, in fact this research aims to show hope’s role when agency is limited, rather it suggests that individuals are the actor, they do the hoping and commit to a positive outlook. This is most typically represented in phrases such as “I am hopeful that…” or “I have hope that…”, which were therefore used in the present research. Also, while the hoped-for outcome can include the “amelioration of a dreaded outcome” (Lazarus, 1991, p.282, e.g., I am hopeful X does not occur), this paper focuses on positive goals (promotion goals; Higgins, 1997).
We focus on a goal specific optimism, or what Peterson (2000) terms little optimism. Little optimism reflects a specific positive expectation of a future outcome, whereas big optimism refers to more general expectations, in line with dispositional measures of optimism (Carver et al. 2010; Scheier and Carver 1985). Though argued as being separate but related constructs (Peterson, 2000), which has some support in the literature (Gyurcsik and Brawley 2001; Kluemper et al. 2009), little optimisms focus on specific outcomes and development through idiosyncratic experiences (Peterson, 2000), making it more appropriate for the specific outcomes in the current research.
As all games were at the home ground of the bottom tier side, the difference in personal investment could be due to more dedicated fans traveling to the opponent’s home ground.
Anecdotally, top-tier supporters often seemed bemused by the hope/optimism questions, arguing that hope and optimism were the same thing.
References
Aiken, L. S., & West, S. G. (1991). Multiple regression: Testing and interpreting interactions. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
Aspinwall, L. G., & Leaf, S. L. (2002). In search of the unique aspects of hope: Pinning our hopes on positive emotions, future-oriented thinking, hard times, and other people. Psychological Inquiry, 13(4), 276–288.
Averill, J. R., Catlin, G., & Chon, K. K. (1990). Rules of hope. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.
Bar-Tal, D. (2001). Why does fear override hope in societies engulfed by intractable conflict, as it does in the Israeli society? Political Psychology, 22(3), 601–627. doi:10.1111/0162-895x.00255.
Bernardo, A. B. I. (2010). Extending hope theory: Internal and external locus of trait hope. Personality and Individual Differences, 49(8), 944–949. doi:10.1016/j.paid.2010.07.036.
Brandstätter, E., Kühberger, A., & Schneider, F. (2002). A cognitive-emotional account of the shape of the probability weighting function. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15(2), 79–100. doi:10.1002/bdm.404.
Breznitz, S. (1986). The effect of hope on coping with stress. In M. H. Appley & R. Trumbull (Eds.), Dynamics of stress: Physiological, psychological and social perspectives (pp. 295–306). New York, NY: Plenum Press.
Bruininks, P., & Malle, B. F. (2005). Distinguishing hope from optimism and related affective states. Motivation and Emotion, 29(4), 327–355. doi:10.1007/s11031-006-9010-4.
Bryant, F. B., & Cvengros, J. A. (2004). Distinguishing hope and optimism: Two sides of a coin, or two separate coins? Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 23(2), 273–302. doi:10.1521/jscp.23.2.273.31018.
Carver, C. S., Scheier, M. F., & Segerstrom, S. C. (2010). Optimism. Clinical Psychology Review, 30, 879–889. doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2010.01.006.
Du, H., & King, R. B. (2013). Placing hope in self and others: Exploring the relationships among self-construals, locus of hope, and adjustment. Personality and Individual Differences, 54(3), 332–337. doi:10.1016/j.paid.2012.09.015.
Erickson, R. C., Post, R. D., & Paige, A. B. (1975). Hope as a psychiatric variable. Journal of Clinical Psychology. doi:10.1002/1097-4679(197504)31:2.
Gentes, E. L., & Ruscio, A. M. (2011). A meta-analysis of the relation of intolerance of uncertainty to symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder. Clinical Psychology Review, 31(6), 923–933. doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2011.05.001.
Gyurcsik, N. C., & Brawley, L. R. (2001). Is the glass half-full or half-empty? The relationship of big and little optimism with acute and longer term exercise-related social cognitions. Journal of Applied Biobehavioral Research, 6(2), 108–127. doi:10.1111/j.1751-9861.2001.tb00109.x.
Hayes, A. F. (2013). Introduction to mediation, moderation, and conditional process analysis: A regression-based approach. New York: Guilford Press.
Higgins, E. T. (1997). Beyond pleasure and pain. American Psychologist, 52, 1280–1300. doi:10.1037/0003-066x.52.12.1280.
Hogg, M. A. (2012). Uncertainty-identity theory. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 39, 69–126. doi:10.1016/s0065-2601(06)39002-8.
Kluemper, D. H., Little, L. M., & Degroot, T. (2009). State or trait: Effects of state optimism on job-related outcomes. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 30(2), 209–231. doi:10.1002/job.591.
Korner, I. N. (1970). Hope as a method of coping. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 34(2), 134–139. doi:10.1037/h0029004.
Lazarus, R. S. (1991). Emotion and adaptation. New York: Oxford University Press.
Lazarus, R. S. (1999). Hope: An emotion and a vital coping resource against despair. Social Research, 66(2), 653–678.
Loewenstein, G. F., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C. K., & Welch, N. (2001). Risk as feelings. Psychological Bulletin, 127(2), 267. doi:10.1037//0033-2909.127.2.267.
Massey, C., Simmons, J. P., & Armor, D. A. (2011). Hope over experience: Desirability and the persistence of optimism. Psychological Science, 22(2), 274–281. doi:10.1177/0956797610396223.
McGeer, V. (2004). The art of good hope. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 592, 100–127. doi:10.1177/0002716203261781.
Miceli, M., & Castelfranchi, C. (2010). Hope: The power of wish and possibility. Theory and Psychology, 20(2), 251–276. doi:10.1177/0959354309354393.
Nelissen, R. M. A. (2015). The motivational properties of hope in goal-striving. Cognition and Emotion. doi:10.1080/02699931.2015.1095165.
Nietszche, F. (1994). Human, all too human. London, UK: Penguin Books.
Oettingen, G., & Mayer, D. (2002). The motivating function of thinking about the future: expectations versus fantasies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(5), 1198. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.83.5.1198.
Perley, J., Winget, C., & Placci, C. (1971). Hope and discomfort as factors influencing treatment continuance. Comprehensive Psychiatry, 12(6), 557–563. doi:10.1016/0010-440x(71)90038-1.
Peterson, C. (2000). The future of optimism. American Psychologist, 55(1), 44–55. doi:10.1037/0003-066x.55.1.4.
Pettit, P. (2004). Hope and its place in mind. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 592, 152–165. doi:10.1177/0002716203261798.
Rottenstreich, Y., & Hsee, C. K. (2001). Money, kisses, and electric shocks: On the affective psychology of risk. Psychological Science, 12(3), 185–190. doi:10.1111/1467-9280.00334.
Scheier, M. F., & Carver, C. S. (1985). Optimism, coping, and health: assessment and implications of generalized outcome expectancies. Health Psychology, 4(3), 219–247. doi:10.1037/0278-6133.4.3.219.
Snyder, C. R. (2002). Hope theory: Rainbows in the mind. Psychological Inquiry, 13(4), 249–275. doi:10.1521/jscp.2000.19.1.11.
Snyder, C. R., Harris, C., Anderson, J. R., Holleran, S. A., Irving, L. M., Sigmon, S. T., & Harney, P. (1991). The will and the ways: Development and validation of an individual-differences measure of hope. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60(4), 570–585. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.60.4.570.
Staats, S. (1989). Hope: a comparison of two self-report measures for adults. Journal of Personality Assessment, 53(2), 366–375. doi:10.1207/s15327752jpa5302_13.
Stotland, E. (1969). The psychology of hope. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Tong, E. M. W., Fredrickson, B. L., Chang, W., & Lim, Z. X. (2010). Re-examining hope: The roles of agency thinking and pathways thinking. Cognition and Emotion, 24, 1207–1215. doi:10.1080/02699930903138865.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4), 297–323. doi:10.1007/BF00122574.
van den Bos, K., & Lind, E. A. (2002). Uncertainty management by means of fairness judgments. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 34, pp. 1–60). San Diego: Academic Press.
West, S., Aiken, L., Wu, W., & Taylor, A. (2007). Multiple regression: Applications of the basics and beyond in personality research. In Handbook of Research Methods in Personality Psychology, pp. 573–601.
Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Ethical approval
All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. This article does not contain any studies with animals performed by any of the authors.
Informed consent
Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bury, S.M., Wenzel, M. & Woodyatt, L. Giving hope a sporting chance: Hope as distinct from optimism when events are possible but not probable. Motiv Emot 40, 588–601 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-016-9560-z
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-016-9560-z