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Fine-scale wetland features mediate vector and climate-dependent macroscale patterns in human West Nile virus incidence

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Abstract

Context

Mosquito-borne diseases in the United States are notorious for their seemingly erratic temporal and spatial outbreak patterns in humans. Identifying linkages between fine-scale phenomenon and macroscale outbreak patterns can improve the understanding of these complex socio–ecological systems.

Objectives

Using West Nile virus (WNV) as a model system, we examine whether fine-scale wetland characteristics—wetland size, connectivity, and inundation regime—have an important effect on macroscale human disease outbreak in the northeastern and midwestern United States.

Methods

We take a spatially explicit GIS-based approach, derive new macroscale wetland metrics based on fine-scale wetland characteristics, and use county-level annual human WNV incidence data over 11 years to evaluate linkages between the fine and macroscales (1.6 million km2).

Results

In regions dominated by the Culex tarsalis WNV vector, U.S. counties with a small average wetland size had more than 100 % higher human WNV incidence than counties with a large average wetland size. In regions dominated by the Cx. pipiens and Cx. restuans vectors, a low proportional area of connected wetland was associated with at least 50 % higher human WNV incidence than a high proportional area of connected wetland. Finally, Cx. tarsalis-dominated counties with a high proportional area of semi-permanent wetland that were experiencing drought conditions had over 300 % higher annual WNV incidence than drought-affected counties with a low proportional area of semi-permanent wetland.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that phenomena occurring at the individual wetland scale may aggregate to influence macroscale human WNV outbreak patterns and may be mediated by the interplay of other factors such as vector species-specific traits and climate.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Drs. Jean-Francois Lapierre, Patricia Soranno, Michael Kaufman, Jennifer Owen, and the MSU Limnology Lab for reviews of early drafts that greatly improved the manuscript. We thank our data providers including the CDC, US FWS, US Census Bureau and the USGS, and our data processers Scott Stopyak, Nicole Smith, and Ed Bissell. This work was supported by grants from the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program, MSU Environmental Science and Policy Program, and the NSF MacroSystems Biology Program in the Emerging Frontiers Division of the Biological Sciences Directorate (EF-1065786).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 13 Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Nicholas Karam Skaff & Kendra Spence Cheruvelil

  2. Ecology, Evolutionary Biology and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Nicholas Karam Skaff

  3. Lyman Briggs College, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48825, USA

    Kendra Spence Cheruvelil

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Correspondence to Nicholas Karam Skaff.

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Skaff, N.K., Cheruvelil, K.S. Fine-scale wetland features mediate vector and climate-dependent macroscale patterns in human West Nile virus incidence. Landscape Ecol 31, 1615–1628 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0346-1

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