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Simulating land use and land cover change in a semi-arid region from 1989 to 2039: the case of Hafir-Zariffet forest, Tlemcen, Algeria

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Abstract

The pace and magnitude of land use and land cover (LULC) change are of global concern due to its role in pressing issues such as climate change, food security, soil degradation and biodiversity loss. The present study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in LULC in the Hafir-Zariffet forest of Tlemcen, Northwest Algeria. We also simulated possible future LULC scenarios for the area. LULC maps of 1989, 1999, 2009 and 2019 were classified using the Random Forest Algorithm in R software and change assessed via intensity analysis. The results revealed that the first decade (1989–1999) showed a faster intensity of change compared to the second (1999–2009) and the third decades (2009–2019). Sparse wooded maquis experienced a major decline (1989–2019) of 15.19% whereas open matorral (+ 14.30), forest (+ 0.15%), and agriculture (+ 1.33%) increased. The simulation at a skill measure of > 0.50 showed that the open matorral could witness the highest loss of 29.13% while forest cover, sparse wooded maquis, settlement and barelands, and agriculture could increase by 9.51%, 13.26%, 0.56% and 5.79%, respectively between 2019 and 2039 based on the change pattern between 2009 and 2019 in the study area. The substantial decline of open matorral and the expansion of agriculture, settlement and barelands could pose a threat to the ecology of the environment as the changes will impact the ecosystem functions of the landscape. The findings of this study provide useful information on understanding spatiotemporal LULC change in the semi-arid Mediterranean region and can assist sustainable land development policies.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to express our special appreciation to the Intra-Africa Mobility program for funding this study. We are also grateful to the technicians of the research laboratory of soil, water and forest management for their technical support. We acknowledge the freely available Landsat images from USGS GLOVIS, and land cover maps from the European Space Agency and National Geomatics Centre of China (NGCC). We appreciate the developers of Google Earth for making it possible to access historical high resolution images. We specifically thank the developers of the intensity analysis software for making it freely available online. Finally, we are grateful to the anonymous reviewers and editor for helping to improve the quality of the paper.

Funding

This research was funded by the Intra-Africa ACADEMY, project N0 2017-3052/001-001.

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  1. Research Laboratory N ° 31, Conservatory Management of Water, Soil and Forests, Department of Forest Resources, University of Tlemcen, 13000, Tlemcen, Algeria

    Bright Danso Appiagyei & Latifa Belhoucine-Guezouli

  2. Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, PMB, Ghana

    Enoch Bessah

  3. National Institute of Forestry Research (INRF), Tlemcen, Algeria

    Boutkhil Morsli

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Appiagyei, B.D., Belhoucine-Guezouli, L., Bessah, E. et al. Simulating land use and land cover change in a semi-arid region from 1989 to 2039: the case of Hafir-Zariffet forest, Tlemcen, Algeria. GeoJournal 88, 4159–4173 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-023-10853-2

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