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Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change

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Abstract

This article examines the disconnect between predictions about climate change and dominant geopolitical framings of the future. To begin, we introduce four popular geopolitical models of the world. We then show how climate change is a critical variable when considering the future of international politics. Focusing on the specific issues of water availability, agricultural productivity, coastal impacts, and shipping routes, we discuss the implications of predicted changes in the wake of climate change for the assumptions on which these scenarios are built. We show that work linking climate change and geopolitics has clear implications for the ways in which the future geopolitical (dis)order is conceptualized, and we argue that the failure to incorporate this work into geopolitical scenario-planning represents a significant limitation to their utility. We offer some direction for a re-conceptualization of the future based on a more dynamic and flexible approach to geopolitics that recognizes the disruptions posed by climatic and other environmental changes.

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Notes

  1. Huntington expresses significant concerns about the ability of the West to meet these challenges.

  2. We rely on the distinction between the effects of climate change (sea-level rise, increases in storm severity, changes in weather patterns, etc.) and other environmental changes (deforestation, soil erosion, pollution, etc.), though many issues are invariably inter-related.

  3. More recent studies suggest that Arctic ice is melting faster than expected and sea levels are likely to rise more than was predicted in the 2007 report (see e.g., Fussel 2009; Lenton et al. 2008).

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  1. Oregon State University, College of Earth, Oceanic and Atmospheric Science, Corvallis, OR, USA

    Demian Hommel

  2. University of Oregon, Department of Geography, Eugene, OR, USA

    Alexander B. Murphy

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Hommel, D., Murphy, A.B. Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change. GeoJournal 78, 507–524 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-012-9448-8

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