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Development of an Uncertainty Based Model to Predict Land Subsidence Caused by Groundwater Extraction (Case Study: Tehran Basin)

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Abstract

Excessive extraction from groundwater supplies in recent years has caused substantial land subsidence over large area. Therefore, the groundwater exploration from aquifer needs information about maximum subsidence of basin. The aim of this study is to use the ability of both numerical model and data driven algorithms for robust and fast prediction of land subsidence. In this way, the subsidence package in framework of MODFLOW is used to determine effect of groundwater fluctuant on subsidence rate through the Tehran basin. To evaluate the permeability (T) effect on uncertainty simulation model, four realization of T generated using different variogram based on borehole information. Regarding to the high run time for simulation of each realization and evaluate uncertainty of parameters, two type of model tree algorithm was trained with information of deformation rates. The non-dimensional geological and hydrogeological parameters of the aquifer were used to train the model tree. Result of numerical model show that deformation rate generated by spherical variogram show the high correlation (0.96) with low SD value (13.04) between simulated and observed data. Also, pruned M5′ tree model with depth of 7 shows the high value of correlation coefficient (0.965) between simulated and predicted subsidence values.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are greatly thankful to Tehran Regional Water Authority for providing some data. We thank all reviewers and the editors for their kind reviews and comments that improved the clarity of the final manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Resources Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

    Ali Ranjbar

  2. Environment Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

    Majid Ehteshami

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  1. Ali Ranjbar
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  2. Majid Ehteshami
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Correspondence to Ali Ranjbar.

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Ranjbar, A., Ehteshami, M. Development of an Uncertainty Based Model to Predict Land Subsidence Caused by Groundwater Extraction (Case Study: Tehran Basin). Geotech Geol Eng 37, 3205–3219 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-019-00837-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-019-00837-w

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