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Reconsidering Herbert A. Simon’s Major Themes in Economics: Towards an Experimentally Grounded Capital Structure Theory Drawing from His Methodological Conjectures

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Abstract

Drawing inspiration from a renowned critique of standard economics moved by Simon (Q J Econ 69(1):99–118, 1955, Am Econ Rev 49(3):253–283, 1959), the authors of this paper develop a novel experimental design moving beyond the hypothesis-testing framework traditionally based on the use of deductive logic, while introducing a new way suitable for addressing the problem of understanding the impact of fluctuations and uncertainty in business decision-making. As claimed in the paper, this can be achieved by adopting an abductive approach to research design that incorporates an experimental methodology based on an original computerised real effort task, so that to explore firms—and other forms of business organisations—serving as experimental incubators in the market process, pursuing a range of economic enquiries more adherent to real world business applications. Among these enquiries, in this paper the authors focus on firms’ capital structure decisions in order to attempt to advance existing knowledge on the topic of experimental business research within the framework of economics.

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Notes

  1. Among several critics, see Hirshleifer (1965), Hirshleifer and Riley (1979), Kaldor (1982) and Simon (1982).

  2. It is worth remembering that unlike the conventional heuristics of the earliest programme introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1974), the heuristics in the post-Kahneman–Tversky era are focused on spelled-out and articulated algorithms (Gigerenzer and Goldstein 1996). These heuristics are supposed to make humans smart in terms of Simon’s (1982) approach to bounded rationality, rather than being merely misleading or revealing cognitive illusions and shortcomings. Therefore, Simon considered cognitive and informational constraints in a broader sense than Kahneman’s and Tversky’s subsequent analysis narrowed.

  3. Simon’s view of uncertainty regarded the future environment, the reactions of other agents, and changes in one’s own tastes and values.

  4. As explained in more detail in Sect. 3, we refer to the bailout cost as a device to deal with corporate insolvency.

  5. In particular, we refer to Knight’s concept of structural uncertainty, or “Knight-Keynes” uncertainty (Taleb 2010).

  6. We refer mainly to controlled experiments of the type lab and extra-lab, especially of the Internet type, so as to involve several countries and cultures, though this future study has already been started.

  7. Simon’s satisficing is a hybrid term (neologism) that encapsulates the combination of satisfying and sufficing (a more in-depth explanation of satisficing is provided in Velupillai 2010b).

  8. The idea of identifying design with problem-solving and pursuing it under the umbrella of bounded rationality has been lively discussed and debated across scientific disciplines for decades (e.g., see Newell et al. 1962; Schön 1983; Rowe 1987; Hatchuel 2001; Visser 2006, 2009).

  9. A design space is characterised by different types of initial knowledge and hypothesis, generally understood in terms of a set of characteristics and measures, according to which a multidimensional design space is defined involving a number of interrelated activities, and within which the ultimate solution must be sought as if design was a search (Newell and Simon 1972; Hatchuel et al. 2005).

  10. Other authors have been interested in the topic of computable economics, such as Rabin (1957) and Lewis (1986, 1991), but they are not closely related to the purpose of this study.

  11. The experimental design proposed in this paper has to be run with human subjects and, as a control group, with real-life entrepreneurs.

  12. An algorithm to relate the experimental design to randomly assigned human subjects.

  13. In this regard, we draw on experiences from (1) design science in information systems research (Simon 1996 [1969]; Hevner et al. 2004); (2) computer-supported business games and simulations (Meier et al. 1969; March and Smith 1995; Sutcliffe 2002); and (3) a specific entrepreneurial framework with its financial and microeconomic aspects (Giulini et al. 2012) closely connected to the works of Myers and Majluf (1984) and of Koeva (2009) among others.

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Acknowledgements

We are very grateful to Kumaraswamy Vela Velupillai for prompting us to further explore Herbert A. Simon’s issues, even related to experimental design research. Furthermore, we are both very grateful to Stefano Zambelli and Shu-Heng Chen for many enlightening conversations and helpful comments on earlier drafts.

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  1. Department of Philosophical, Pedagogical and Economic-Quantitative Sciences (PPEQS), Section of Quantitative Methods and Economics, University of Chieti-Pescara, Viale Pindaro, n. 42, 65127, Pescara, Italy

    Edgardo Bucciarelli & Nicola Mattoscio

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Bucciarelli, E., Mattoscio, N. Reconsidering Herbert A. Simon’s Major Themes in Economics: Towards an Experimentally Grounded Capital Structure Theory Drawing from His Methodological Conjectures. Comput Econ 57, 799–823 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-018-9808-7

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