Abstract
Future changes in the mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature over Europe are investigated according to CMIP6 future climate projections. All the temperature variables are projected to increase across Europe particularly in northern and southernmost latitudes, where according to SSP5-8.5 the warming can reach 2–3 (5–6) °C at the middle (end) of the current century. The warming is particularly strong in Northern (Mediterranean) areas in winter (summer) seasons. The occurrence of hot days (mean temperature > 30 °C) is projected to increase in all southern Europe by the end of the century (> 40–60 days/year), particularly in the southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula and Turkey. Increases in the occurrence of very hot days (maximum temperature > 40 °C) are projected in the central-southern areas of the Iberian Peninsula (30–40 days/year) and southern Turkey (> 50 days/year) in the end of the century. Tropical nights are expected to increase throughout the century in all Europe (except the northernmost latitudes), particularly at southern Europe for the 2081–2100 period (50–80 nights/year). Frost days (minimum temperature < 0 °C) are expected to occur less in all Europe towards the end of the century, with less than 50–70 days/year in central Europe and even less in Scandinavia and north-eastern Russia.
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Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups cited in Table 1 for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. We also acknowledge ECMWF and the Copernicus Climate Change Service for providing and making available the ERA5 reanalysis data used in this work. David Carvalho acknowledges the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) for his researcher contract (CEECIND/01726/2017), the FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020) through national funds, and the funding of the project FIREMODSAT II (PTDC/ASPSIL/28771/2017).
Availability of data and material
All the climatic data used in this work is publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Data Portal (https://esgf.llnl.gov/) and through the ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service (https://climate.copernicus.eu/)
Code availability
MATLAB software was used in the calculations presented in this study. No other software or custom code was used.
Funding
The authors were funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through a researcher contract (CEECIND/01726/2017), the FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020+UIDB/50017/2020) through national funds, and through the project FIREMODSAT II (PTDC/ASPSIL/28771/2017).
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Carvalho, D., Cardoso Pereira, S. & Rocha, A. Future surface temperatures over Europe according to CMIP6 climate projections: an analysis with original and bias-corrected data. Climatic Change 167, 10 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03159-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03159-0