Abstract
Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adams, R. M., McCarl, B. A., Sergeson, K., Rosenzweig, C., Bryant, K. J., Dixon, B. L., Conner, R., Evenson, R. E., and Ojima, D.: 1998, Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture: Some Further Evidence, Electric Power Research Institute, Corvallis, OR, 38 pp.
Allen, L. H., Valle, R. R., Jones, J. W., and Jones, P. H.: 1998, ‘Soybean leaf water potential responses to carbon dioxide and drought’, Agron. J. 90, 375–383.
Blasing, T. J., and Solomon, A.: 1982. Response of the North American corn belt to climatic warming. Environment Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, Publication No. 2134.
Bowes, G.: 1993, ‘Facing the inevitable: Plants and increasing atmospheric CO2’, Annu. Rev. Plant Physiol. Plant Mol. Biol. 44, 309–332.
Brown, R. A. and Rosenberg, N. J.: 1999a, ‘Climate change impacts on the potential productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions’, Climatic Change 41, 73–107.
Brown, R. A. and Rosenberg, N. J.: 1999b, Impact of Climate Change on Potential Production of Corn, Sorghum, Soybean and Winter Wheat in the Conterminous United States for Application to the PNNL Global Change Assessment Model, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 113 pp.
Gitay, H., Brown, S., Easterling, W., and Jallow, B.: 2001 ‘Ecosystems and their goods and services’, in McCarthy et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 235–342.
Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., and Xiaosu, D. (eds.): 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 892 pp.
Luo, Q. and Lin, E.: 1999, ‘Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation in developing countries: The Asia-Pacific region’, Climatic Change 43(4), 729–743.
Makino, A. and Mae, T.: 1999, ‘Photosynthesis and plant growth at elevated levels of CO2’, Plant Cell Physiol. 40(10), 999–1006.
Maroco, J. P., Edwards, G. E., and Ku, M. S. B.: 1999, ‘Photosynthetic acclimation of maize to growth under elevated levels of carbon dioxide’, Planta 210, 115–125.
Mavromatis, T. and Jones, P. D.: 1998, ‘Comparison of climate change scenario construction methodologies for impact assessment studies’, Agric. Forest Meteorol. 91, 51–67.
NAST (National Assessment Synthesis Team): 2000. Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, US Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, UK, Cambridge, 154 pp.
Newman, J. E.: 1982. Impacts of Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels on Agricultural Growing Seasons and Crop Water Use Efficiencies. Vol. II, Part 8. Environmental and Social Consequences of a Possible CO 2 -Induced Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Passioura, J. B.: 1996. ‘Simulation models: Science, snake oil, education or engineering?’, Agron. J. 88, 690–694.
Parry, M. I., Carter, T. R., and Konijn, N. T.: 1988. The Impact of Climate Variations on Agriculture, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Reilly, J., Baethgen, W., Chege, F. E., van de Geijn, S. C., Erda, L., Iglesias, A., Kenny, G., Patterson, D., Rogsick, J., Rotter, R., Rosenzweig, C., Sombroek, W., and Westbrook, J.: 1996, ‘Agriculture in a changing climate: Impacts and adaptation’ in Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., and Moss, R. H. (eds.), Climate Change 1995 – Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific–Technical Analyses, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 429–467.
Reilly, J. M.: 1999, ‘Climate change and agriculture: The state of knowledge’, Climatic Change 43(4), 645–650.
Reilly, J. M. and Schimmelpfennig, D.: 1999, ‘Agricultural impact assessment, vulnerability, and the scope for adaptation’, Climatic Change 43(4), 745–788.
Reilly, J., Graham, J., and Hrubovcak, J.: 2001. Agriculture: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States, US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, US Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 136 pp.
Rounsevell, M. D. A., Evans, S. P., and Bullock, P.: 1999, ‘Climate change and agricultural soils: Impacts and adaptation’, Climatic Change 43, 683–709.
Smith, S. D., Huxman, T. E., Zitzer, S. F., Charlet, T. N., Housman, D. C., Coleman, J. S., Fenstermaker, L. K., Seemann, J. R., and Nowak, R. S.: 2000, ‘Elevated CO2 increases productivity and invasive species success in an arid ecosystem’, Nature 408, 79–81.
United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service: 2001, Published Estimates Database for the Years 1960–1989, URL:http://www.nass.usda.gov:81/ipedb/.
United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service: 1997, Agricultural Atlas of the United States, URL: http://www.nass.usda.gov/census/census97/atlas97/menu.htm.
Williams, J. R.: 1995, ‘The EPIC model’ in Singh, V. P. (ed.), Computer Models in Watershed Hydrology, Water Resources Publication, Highlands Ranch, CO, pp. 909–1000.
World Agricultural Outlook Board: 1994, Major World Crop Areas and Climatic Profiles, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, 279 pp.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Thomson, A.M., Brown, R.A., Rosenberg, N.J. et al. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment. Climatic Change 69, 43–65 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-3612-9
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-3612-9