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Poaceae pollen season and associations with meteorological parameters in Moscow, Russia, 1994–2016

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Abstract

This study aimed at investigating the main features of the Poaceae pollen season and the relation to meteorological parameters as well as the production of a forecasting model. Pollen data were recorded in Moscow, Russia, during 1994–2016 (except 1997 and 1998). Pollen data were collected by volumetric spore trap. Correlation analysis was used to study relationships between various parameters of pollen seasons. Simple linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate trends over time; multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to describe fluctuations in the start date and in seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) as a function of monthly and cumulative climatic parameters. The forecasting model for the start date predicts 72% variability. The mean temperature in April and May and mean humidity in May are the main variables for forecasting the start of the Poaceae pollen season. The SPIn cannot be predicted with pre-seasonal temperature, humidity or rainfall.

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Acknowledgements

This research was conducted with the financial support of Russian Science Foundation (RNF), Grant 14-50-00029 “Scientific basis of the national biobank—depository of the living systems.” The authors are very thankful to Olga Shilovtseva and Ekaterina Gorbarenko for providing meteorological data.

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  1. M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1, 12, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, Russia, 119234

    Olga Volkova & Elena Severova

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Correspondence to Olga Volkova.

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Volkova, O., Severova, E. Poaceae pollen season and associations with meteorological parameters in Moscow, Russia, 1994–2016. Aerobiologia 35, 73–84 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-018-9540-8

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