Abstract
Oak-pine forests in the U.S. Central Hardwood Forests are recovering from exploitative harvesting and clearing in the early twentieth century and are undergoing rapid succession changes. Unprecedented red oak borer (ROB, Enaphalodes rufulus) outbreaks in 1999–2003 are associated with the largest oak mortality event reported in the Central Hardwood Region since the arrival of Europeans. Predicting and evaluating the effects of ROB disturbance on forest composition has practical value for forest management plans that aims to minimize ecological and economic loss from ROB disturbances. However, such prediction at a regional scale is rare due to the limited approaches that could explicitly couple insect outbreak mechanisms with forest dynamics under changing climate. We used a newly developed climate-sensitive Biotic Disturbance Agent module in the LANDIS PRO framework to simulate species composition changes due to succession, climate change, and ROB disturbances in 13.5 million ha forests in the U.S. Central Hardwood Region from 2000 to 2300. Our simulation suggested that succession is more important than climate effects and ROB disturbance in predicting regional species composition changes. ROB disturbance interacting with climate change accelerated the decline of primary host species (e.g., Quercus rubra) and then substantially changed forest succession trajectories under warming climates. Our modeling approach improved the simulation realism of ROB disturbance and more realistically projected how tree species will respond to ROB disturbance under changing climate, informing decision-making in silvicultural prescriptions and long-term management plans.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aquino LD, Tullis JA, Stephen FM (2008) Modeling red oak borer, Enaphalodes rufulus (Haldeman), damage using in situ and ancillary landscape data. For Ecol Manage 255:931–939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.10.011
Benac, D, Flader, S (2004) History of Missouri forests in the era of exploitation and conservation. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-73. Asheville, NC: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. pp. 36–41. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/6491
Bentz BJ, Régnière J, Fettig CJ, Hansen EM, Hayes JL, Hicke JA, Kelsey RG, Negrón JF, Seybold SJ (2010) Climate change and bark beetles of the Western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. Bioscience 60:602–613. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.6
Bi D, Dix M, Marsland S, O’Farrell S, Rashid H, Uotila P, Puri K (2013) The ACCESS coupled model: description, control climate and evaluation. Aust Meteorol Mag 63(1):41–64
Blunden J, Arndt DS (2019) State of the Climate in 2018. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/2019bamsstateoftheclimate.1
Boit A, Sakschewski B, Boysen L, Cano-Crespo A, Clement J, Garcia Alaniz N, Kok K, Kolb M, Langerwisch F, Rammig A, Sachse R, van Eupen M, von Bloh W, Zemp DC, Thonicke K (2019) Using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for Projecting Ecosystem Services at Regional Scales. In: Schröter M, Bonn A, Klotz S, Seppelt R, Baessler C (eds) Atlas of Ecosystem Services. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 57–61
Burns RM, Honkala BH (1990) Hardwoods. Agriculture handbook, vol 654. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington
Chylek P, Li J, Dubey MK, Wang M, Lesins GJAC (2011) Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian earth system model CanESM2. Atmos Chem Phys Discuss 11(8):22893–22907. https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-22893-2011
FIA DataMart (2020). Forest Inventory and Analysis Database. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. [Available from https://apps.fs.usda.gov/fia/datamart/CSV/datamart_csv.html]
Davis PM, Brenes N, Allee LL (1996) Temperature dependent models to predict regional differences in corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) phenology. Environ Entomol (environmental Entomology) 25:767–775. https://doi.org/10.1093/ee/25.4.767
DeRose RJ, Bentz BJ, Long JN, Shaw JD (2013) Effect of increasing temperatures on the distribution of spruce beetle in Engelmann spruce forests of the Interior West, USA. For Ecol Manage 308:198–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.07.061
Dietze MC, Matthes JH (2014) A general ecophysiological framework for modelling the impact of pests and pathogens on forest ecosystems. Ecol Lett 17:1418–1426. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12345
Dietze MC, Moorcroft PR (2011) Tree mortality in the eastern and central United States: patterns and drivers. Global Change Biol 17:3312–3326. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02477.x
Dijak WD (2013) Landscape builder: software for the creation of initial landscapes for LANDIS from FIA data. Comput Ecol and Softw 3:17–25
Dijak WD, Hanberry BB, Fraser JS, He HS, Wang WJ, Thompson FR (2017) Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change. Landsc Ecol 32:1365–1384. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0473-8
Drummond MA, Loveland TR (2010) Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the Eastern United States. Bioscience 60:286–298. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2010.60.4.7
Dunne JP, John JG, Adcroft AJ, Griffies SM, Hallberg RW, Shevliakova E, Stouffer RJ, Cooke W, Dunne KA, Harrison MJ, Krasting JP, Malyshev SL, Milly PCD, Phillipps PJ, Sentman LT, Samuels BL, Spelman MJ, Winton M, Wittenberg AT, Zadeh N (2012) GFDL’s ESM2 Global coupled climate-carbon earth system models. Part i: Phys Formul Baseline Simulation Charact, J Clim 25(19):6646–6665. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00150.1
Elith J, Leathwick JR (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 40:677–697. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159
Fajvan MA, Rentch J, Gottschalk K (2008) The effects of thinning and gypsy moth defoliation on wood volume growth in oaks. Trees 22:257–268. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-007-0183-6
Fan Z, Kabrick JM, Spetich MA, Shifley SR, Jensen RG (2008) Oak mortality associated with crown dieback and oak borer attack in the Ozark Highlands. For Ecol Manage 255:2297–2305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.12.041
Fierke MK, Kinney DL, Salisbury VB, Crook DJ, Stephen FM (2005) A rapid estimation procedure for within-tree populations of red oak borer (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). For Ecol Manage 215:163–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2005.05.009
Fierke MK, Kelley MB, Stephen FM (2007) Site and stand variables influencing red oak borer, Enaphalodes rufulus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), population densities and tree mortality. For Ecol Manage 247:227–236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.04.051
Haavik LJ, Stephen FM (2010) Historical dynamics of a native cerambycid, enaphalodes rufulus, in relation to climate in the ozark and ouachita mountains of arkansas. Ecol Entomol 35:673–683. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2311.2010.01225.x
Haavik LJ, Jones JS, Galligan LD, Guldin JM, Stephen FM (2012) Oak decline and red oak borer outbreak: impact in upland oak-hickory forests of Arkansas, USA. Forestry 85:341–352. https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cps032
Haavik LJ, Billings SA, Guldin JM, Stephen FM (2015) Emergent insects, pathogens and drought shape changing patterns in oak decline in North America and Europe. For Ecol Manage 354:190–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.019
Hansen EM, Bentz BJ, Turner DL (2001) Temperature-based model for predicting univoltine brood proportions in spruce beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Can Entomol 133:827–841. https://doi.org/10.4039/Ent133827-6
Hart SJ, Veblen TT, Mietkiewicz N, Kulakowski D (2015) Negative feedbacks on bark beetle outbreaks: widespread and severe spruce beetle infestation restricts subsequent infestation. PLoS ONE 10:e0127975. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127975
Hay CJ (1974) Survival and mortality of red oak borer larvae1 on black, scarlet, and northern red oak2 in eastern kentucky. Ann Entomol Soc Am 67:981–986. https://doi.org/10.1093/aesa/67.6.981
Hay CJ (1969) The life history of a red oak borer and its behavior in red, black, and scarlet oak. Proceedings North Central Branch: ESA:125–127
He HS (2008) Forest landscape models: definitions, characterization, and classification. For Ecol Manage 254:484–498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.08.022
Iverson LR, Prasad AM (1998) Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecol Monogr 68:465–485
Jactel H, Brockerhoff EG (2007) Tree diversity reduces herbivory by forest insects. Ecol Lett 10:835–848. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01073.x
James PMA, Fortin M-J, Sturtevant BR, Fall A, Kneeshaw D (2011) Modelling spatial interactions among fire, spruce budworm, and logging in the boreal forest. Ecosystems 14:60–75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-010-9395-5
Johnson PS, Shifley SR, Rogers R, Dey DC, Kabrick JM (2019) The ecology and silviculture of oaks. CABI, Wallingford
Jönsson AM, Schroeder LM, Lagergren F, Anderbrant O, Smith B (2012) Guess the impact of Ips typographus—An ecosystem modelling approach for simulating spruce bark beetle outbreaks. Agric for Meteorol 166–167:188–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.012
Kabrick JM, Dey DC, Jensen RG, Wallendorf M (2008) The role of environmental factors in oak decline and mortality in the Ozark Highlands. For Ecol Manage 255:1409–1417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.10.054
Kautz M, Meddens AJH, Hall RJ, Arneth A (2017) Biotic disturbances in Northern Hemisphere forests - a synthesis of recent data, uncertainties and implications for forest monitoring and modelling. Global Ecol Biogeogr 26:533–552. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12558
LANDFIRE (2012) Vegetation disturbance, LANDFIRE 1.4.0. U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey. Retrieved from http://www.landfire.gov/viewer/
Little Jr EL (1971) Atlas of United States trees. Conifers and important hardwoods. (Vol 1) Misc. Publ. 1146. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service
Manion PD (1981) Tree disease concepts. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs
Maurer EP, Wood AW, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP, Nijssen B (2002) A Long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States*. J Clim 15:3237–3251. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c3237:ALTHBD%3e2.0.CO;2
McDowell NG, Beerling DJ, Breshears DD, Fisher RA, Raffa KF, Stitt M (2011) The interdependence of mechanisms underlying climate-driven vegetation mortality. Trends Ecol Evol 26:523–532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2011.06.003
McMahon SM, Harrison SP, Armbruster WS, Bartlein PJ, Beale CM, Edwards ME, Kattge J, Midgley G, Morin X, Prentice IC (2011) Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity. Trends Ecol Evol 26:249–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2011.02.012
Overbeck M, Schmidt M (2012) Modelling infestation risk of Norway spruce by Ips typographus (L.) in the Lower Saxon Harz Mountains (Germany). For Ecol Manage 266:115–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.11.011
Pachauri RK, Allen MR, Barros VR, Broome J, Cramer W, Christ R, Church JA, Clarke L, Dahe Q, Dasgupta P (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
Pachzelt A, Forrest M, Rammig A, Higgins SI, Hickler T (2015) Potential impact of large ungulate grazers on African vegetation, carbon storage and fire regimes. Global Ecol Biogeogr 24:991–1002. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12313
Pederson N, D’Amato AW, Dyer JM, Foster DR, Goldblum D, Hart JL, Hessl AE, Iverson LR, Jackson ST, Martin-Benito D, McCarthy BC, McEwan RW, Mladenoff DJ, Parker AJ, Shuman B, Williams JW (2015) Climate remains an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the eastern United States. Global Change Biol 21:2105–2110. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12779
Peterson CJ, Cannon JB, Godfrey CM (2016) First steps toward defining the wind disturbance regime in central hardwoods forests. In: Natural disturbances and historic range of variation. Springer, Cham, pp 89–122. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21527-3_5
Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Thrasher BL (2014) Statistical downscaling using localized constructed analogs (LOCA)*. J Hydrometeorol 15:2558–2585. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0082.1
Riggins JJ, Galligan LD, Stephen FM (2009) Rise and fall of red oak borer (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas, USA. Florida Entomologist 92:426–433. https://doi.org/10.1653/024.092.0303
Rupp DE, Abatzoglou JT, Hegewisch KC, Mote PW (2013) Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50843
Scheller RM, Kretchun AM, Loudermilk EL, Hurteau MD, Weisberg PJ, Skinner C (2018) Interactions among fuel management, species composition, bark beetles, and climate change and the potential Effects on forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin. Ecosystems 21:643–656. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0175-3
Schumacher S (2004) The role of large-scale disturbances and climate for the dynamics of forested landscapes in the European Alps. Doctoral dissertation, ETH
Seidl R, Rammer W (2017) Climate change amplifies the interactions between wind and bark beetle disturbances in forest landscapes. Landsc Ecol 32:1485–1498. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0396-4
Solomon JD (1995) Guide to insect borers in North American broadleaf trees and shrubs. Agriculture handbook, AH-706. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, D.C.
Sommerfeld A, Rammer W, Heurich M, Hilmers T, Müller J, Seidl R (2021) Do bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe? J Appl Ecol 109:737–749. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13502
Soucy RD, Heitzman E, Spetich MA (2005) The establishment and development of oak forests in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas. Can J for Res 35:1790–1797. https://doi.org/10.1139/x05-104
Starkey DA, Oliveria F, Mangini A, Mielke M (2004) The interior highlands of arkansas and missouri: natural phenomena, severe occurrences. In Upland Oak Ecology Symposium: History, Current Conditions, and Sustainability: Fayetteville, Arkansas, October 7–10, 2002 (Vol. 73, p. 217). Southern Research Station.
Stephen FM, Salisbury VB, Oliveria FL (2001) Red oak borer, Enaphalodes rufulus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas, USA: an unexpected and remarkable forest disturbance. Integr Pest Manag Rev 6:247–252. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1025779520102
Sturtevant BR, Gustafson EJ, Li W, He HS (2004) Modeling biological disturbances in LANDIS: a module description and demonstration using spruce budworm. Ecol Modell 180:153–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.01.021
Tang G, Bartlein PJ (2008) Simulating the climatic effects on vegetation: approaches, issues and challenges. Prog Phys Geogr: Earth Environ 32:543–556
Temperli C, Bugmann H, Elkin C (2013) Cross-scale interactions among bark beetles, climate change, and wind disturbances: a landscape modeling approach. Ecol Monogr 83:383–402. https://doi.org/10.1890/12-1503.1
Temperli C, Veblen TT, Hart SJ, Kulakowski D, Tepley AJ (2015) Interactions among spruce beetle disturbance, climate change and forest dynamics captured by a forest landscape model. Ecosphere. https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00394.1
Trotter RT, Keena MA (2016) A variable-instar climate-driven individual beetle-based phenology model for the invasive Asian longhorned beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Environ Entomol 45:1360–1370. https://doi.org/10.1093/ee/nvw108
Wang WJ, He HS, Spetich MA, Shifley SR, Thompson FR III, Larsen DR, Fraser JS, Yang J (2013) A large-scale forest landscape model incorporating multi-scale processes and utilizing forest inventory data. Ecosphere. https://doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00040.1
Wang WJ, He HS, Fraser JS, Thompson FR, Shifley SR, Spetich MA (2014) LANDIS PRO: a landscape model that predicts forest composition and structure changes at regional scales. Ecography 37:225–229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00495.x
Wang WJ, He HS III, FRT, Fraser JS, Hanberry BB, Dijak WD, (2015) Importance of succession, harvest, and climate change in determining future composition in US Central Hardwood Forests. Ecosphere. https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00238.1
Wang WJ, He HS, Thompson FR, Fraser JS, Dijak WD (2016) Landscape- and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States. Landsc Ecol 31:149–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0294-1
Wang WJ, Thompson FR, He HS, Fraser JS, Dijak WD, Spetich MA (2018) Population dynamics has greater effects than climate change on tree species distribution in a temperate forest region. J Biogeogr 45:2766–2778. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13467
Wang WJ, Thompson FR, He HS, Fraser JS, Dijak WD, Jones-Farrand T (2019) Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes. J Ecol 107:1901–1917. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13144
Wargo PM (1983) Oak decline (Vol. 165) U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service
Acknowledgements
We appreciate the constructive suggestions from Frank Thompson and Stephen Shifley to improve this manuscript.
Funding
This study was funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Southern Research Station (Grant 14-JV-11330134–049).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
SD and HH contributed to conceptualization; SD, HH, and WW helped in methodology; SD, WW, WX, and JF contributed to data curation and analysis; SD, HH, MS, WW, and WX contributed to writing and editing.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Availability of data and material
The datasets generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Additional information
Communicated by Gediminas Brazaitis.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Duan, S., He, H.S., Spetich, M.A. et al. Long-term effects of succession, climate change and insect disturbance on oak-pine forest composition in the U.S. Central Hardwood Region. Eur J Forest Res 141, 153–164 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-021-01428-2
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-021-01428-2