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Detecting the socioeconomic driving forces of the fire catastrophe in NW Spain

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Abstract

Wildfires cause devastating environmental, social and economic effects in different regions of the world. The aim of this study was to analyze the long-run relationship between the number of ignition events and socioeconomic variables using time series data. We focus on Galicia, a region in the northwest part of the Iberian Peninsula and with one of the highest fire density and largest burned areas in Europe. Since the late 1980s, the number of forest fires has increased in Galicia and caused extensive damage to the environment, property and human life. The analysis is based on cointegration tests between variables. In order to avoid the problems related to spurious regression, the ARDL bounds testing approach was applied. The statistical evidence allows us to conclude that in the long term, the price of eucalyptus timber, the population in the primary sector and the intensity of the elections are relevant factors in explaining the start of forest fires. These three variables are found to increase the propensity of the population to start a fire that cause devastating environmental, social and economic effects.

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Notes

  1. Literature on ignition factors has found other explanatory factors such as the number of arrests, housing density and distance to infrastructures (Prestemon et al. 2012; Ganteaume et al. 2013) to be relevant at local, regional and national level of analysis. Unfortunately, there are no time series available for the period of study.

  2. This information can be downloaded from www.ige.eu/web/index.jsp?paxina=001&idioma=gl.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Vigo, Lagoas-Marcosende s/n, 36310, Vigo, Spain

    Marcos Álvarez-Díaz, Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giraldez

Authors
  1. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz
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  2. Manuel González-Gómez
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  3. María Soledad Otero-Giraldez
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Manuel González-Gómez.

Additional information

Handling editor: Dr. Martin Moog.

We are thankful for the useful insights of four ananymous referees and the subject editor.

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Álvarez-Díaz, M., González-Gómez, M. & Otero-Giraldez, M.S. Detecting the socioeconomic driving forces of the fire catastrophe in NW Spain. Eur J Forest Res 134, 1087–1094 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-015-0911-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-015-0911-1

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