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University student enrollment forecasts by analysis structural ratios using ARIMA-methods

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Summary

Forecasts for the number of students in Germany are conducted by the Kultusministerkonferenz. They use a transition model which does not allow for prediction intervals and therefore lack a measure of uncertainty of the forecast. Since the uncertainty is high for such forecasts, this lack is of importance.

In this paper, structural ratios, relating the number of university students to the population of the same age, are analyzed and forescasted using ARIMA-models with outliers. Multiplying these ratios with official population forecasts for Germany provides the future number of students, additionally giving prediction intervals. This number will increase from 1.94 million in 2002 to 2.35 million in 2015. The uncertainty of the forecast is high; the forecast interval in 2015 will range between 1.72 and 2.98 million at a 95% confidence level.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fachbereich Statistik, Universität Dortmund, 44221, Dortmund

    Stephan Boes

  2. Fachbereich Betriebswirtschaft, Fachhochschule Kempten, Postfach 1680, 87406, Kempten

    Peter Pflaumer

Authors
  1. Stephan Boes
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  2. Peter Pflaumer
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Additional information

Supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG). We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some helpful comments.

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Boes, S., Pflaumer, P. University student enrollment forecasts by analysis structural ratios using ARIMA-methods. Allgemeines Statistisches Arch 90, 253–271 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10182-006-0233-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10182-006-0233-1

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