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Dynamic prediction of cancer-specific survival for primary hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

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Abstract

Objectives

This study investigated a large cohort of patients to construct a predictive nomogram and a web-based survival rate calculator for dynamically predicting the cancer-specific survival of patients with primary hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HSCC).

Methods

Patients (n = 2007) initially diagnosed with primary HSCC from 2004 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts (1:1). The Lasso Cox regression model was applied to identify independent risk factors of cancer-specific survival for a predictive nomogram and a web-based calculator. The model was evaluated by concordance index, calibration, and decision curve analysis.

Results

Cancer-specific survival rates decreased with time, while 3-year conditional survival increased. Cancer-specific deaths evolved from relatively high within the first 3 years to low thereafter. Age, race, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and marital status were identified as independent risk factors. We constructed a predictive nomogram for survival and a web-based calculator (https://linzhongyang.shinyapps.io/Hypopharyngeal/). Additionally, a prognostic risk stratification was developed according to nomogram total points.

Conclusions

Patients with primary HSCC were found at a high risk of cancer-specific death during the first 3 years, indicating that additional effective follow-up strategies should be implemented over the period. This is the first study to construct a predictive nomogram and a web-based calculator for all patients with HSCC.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank all the medical staff who contributed to the maintenance of the medical record database.

Funding

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Otolaryngology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, No. 20 Chazhong Road, Fuzhou, 350005, Fujian, China

    Zhongyang Lin & Chang Lin

  2. Department of Otolaryngology, Eye Ear Nose and Throat Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

    Hanqing Lin

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  1. Zhongyang Lin
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  2. Hanqing Lin
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  3. Chang Lin
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Correspondence to Chang Lin.

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Lin, Z., Lin, H. & Lin, C. Dynamic prediction of cancer-specific survival for primary hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. Int J Clin Oncol 25, 1260–1269 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10147-020-01671-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10147-020-01671-4

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