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Risk prediction model for gastric cancer within 5 years in healthy Korean adults

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Abstract

Background

Although endoscopy is commonly used for gastric cancer screening in South Korea, predictive models that integrate endoscopy results are scarce. We aimed to develop a 5-year gastric cancer risk prediction model using endoscopy results as a predictor.

Methods

We developed a predictive model using the cohort data of the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study from 2011 to 2019. Among the 260,407 participants aged ≥20 years who did not have any previous history of cancer, 435 cases of gastric cancer were observed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the predictors and calculate the 5-year risk of gastric cancer. Harrell’s C-statistics and Nam-D’Agostino χ2 test were used to measure the quality of discrimination and calibration ability, respectively.

Results

We included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol consumption, family history of cancer, and previous results for endoscopy in the risk prediction model. This model showed sufficient discrimination ability [development cohort: C-Statistics: 0.800, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.770–0.829; validation cohort: C-Statistics: 0.799, 95% CI 0.743–0.856]. It also performed well with effective calibration (development cohort: χ2 = 13.65, P = 0.135; validation cohort: χ2 = 15.57, P = 0.056).

Conclusion

Our prediction model, including young adults, showed good discrimination and calibration. Furthermore, this model considered a fixed time interval of 5 years to predict the risk of developing gastric cancer, considering endoscopic results. Thus, it could be clinically useful, especially for adults with endoscopic results.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Medical Research Funds from Kangbuk Samsung Hospital (Grant No. I20016, 2021). The funding sources had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Jung Ah Lee and Yoosoo Chang contributed equally as lead authors and supervised the work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Workplace Health Institute, Total Healthcare Center, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea

    Hyungseok Oh & Sunwoo Cho

  2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA

    Sunwoo Cho

  3. Department of Family Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-Ro 43-Gil, Songpa-Gu, Seoul, 05505, South Korea

    Jung Ah Lee

  4. Center for Cohort Studies, Total Healthcare Center, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Seungho Ryu & Yoosoo Chang

  5. Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Seungho Ryu & Yoosoo Chang

  6. Department of Clinical Research Design & Evaluation, Samsung Advanced Institute for Health Sciences & Technology, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Seungho Ryu & Yoosoo Chang

Authors
  1. Hyungseok Oh
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  2. Sunwoo Cho
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Contributions

HO: conceptualization, writing—original draft; SC: writing—original draft, formal analysis; JAL: conceptualization, writing—review and editing, supervision, funding acquisition; SR writing—review and editing, supervision; YC conceptualization, writing—review and editing, supervision.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jung Ah Lee.

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Conflicts of interest

The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose.

Ethical approval

This study complied with the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, which waived the requirement for informed consent because of the use of anonymized data routinely collected as part of a health checkup program linked to mortality data from the Korea National Statistical Office (IRB No. 2011-01-030-005 for the general Kangbuk Samsung Health Study protocol and 2021-08-046 for the present study).

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Oh, H., Cho, S., Lee, J.A. et al. Risk prediction model for gastric cancer within 5 years in healthy Korean adults. Gastric Cancer (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10120-024-01488-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10120-024-01488-4

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