Abstract
In this study, we compare the simulation of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the historical integrations of 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models with corresponding observations. The mean state and ENSO variations are analyzed in both the atmosphere and ocean and it is found that most of the CMIP5 models exhibit cold (warm) biases in the equatorial (subtropical eastern) Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature that are reminiscent of the split intertropical convergence zone phenomenon found in previous studies. There is, however, a major improvement in the representation of the power spectrum of the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature variations, which shows that, as in the observations, a majority of the models display a spectral peak in the 2–7 year range, have a near-linear relationship with the displacement of the equatorial thermocline and exhibit a robust atmospheric response to ENSO variations. Several issues remain such as erroneous amplitudes in the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature spectrum’s peak and a width of the spectral peak that is either too broad or too narrow. It is also seen that most CMIP5 models unlike the observations extend the ENSO variations in the equatorial Pacific too far westward beyond the dateline and there is very little asymmetry in event duration between the warm and cold phases. ENSO variability forces a dominant mode of rainfall variability in the southeastern United States, especially in the boreal winter season. The CMIP5 exhibited a wide range of response in this metric with several displaying weak to nonexistent, some showing relatively strong, and one indicating excessively zonally symmetric teleconnection over the southeastern United States.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
See supplementary material for details.
References
AchutaRao Krishna, Sperber KR (2006) ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: are the current models better? Clim Dyn 27:1–15
Battisti DS (1988) The dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere/ocean model. J Atmos Sci 45:2889–2919
Battisti DS, Hirst AC (1989) Interannual variability in the tropical atmosphere-ocean system: influences of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlinearity. J Atmos Sci 46:1687–1712
Behringer D, Xue Y (2004) Evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP: the Pacific Ocean. Eighth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface. AMS 84th Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, 11–15
Capotondi A, Wittenberg A, Masina S (2006) Spatial and temporal structure of tropical pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations. Ocean Model 15:274–298
Chang Ping, Ji Link, Wang Bin, Li Tim (1995) Interactions between the seasonal cycle and El Niño-Southern oscillation in an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Atmos Sci 52:2353–2372
Clarke A (2008) An introduction to the dynamics of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Academic press, p 324
Diaz HF, Hoerling MP, Eischeid JK (2001) ENSO variability, teleconnections and climate change. Int J Climatol 21:1845–1862
Fedorov AV, Philander SG (2001) A stability analysis of the tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions: bridging measurements of, and theory for El Niño. J Clim 14:3086–3101
Gent PR, Yeager SG, Neale RB, Levis S, Bailey DA (2010) Improvements in a half degree atmosphere/land version of the CCSM. Clim Dyn 34:819–833. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0614-8
Ghil A et al (2002) Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys 40(1):1003. doi:10.1029/2000RG000092
Guilyardi E, Wittenberg A, Fedorov A, Collins M, Wang C, Capotondi A, van Oldenborgh GJ, Stockdale T (2009) Understanding El Niño in ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 90:325–339
Guilyardi E, Bellenger H, Collins M, Ferrett S, Cai W, Wittenberg A (2012) A First look at ENSO in CMIP5. Clivar Exchange 59(17):29–32
Guilyiardi E (2006) El Niño mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in a multimodel ensemble. Clim Dyn 26:329–348
Hayes SP, Mangum LJ, Picaut J, Sumi A, Takeuchi K (1991) TAO: a moored array for real-time measurements in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 72:339–347
Jin Fei–Fei (1997) An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for enso. Part I: conceptual model. J Atmos Sci 54:811–829
Joseph R, Nigam S (2006) ENSO evolution and teleconnections in IPCCs twentieth-century climate simulations: realistic representation? J. Climate 19:4360–4377
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D et al. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Soc 77:437–471
Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Amer Met Soc 83:1631–1643
Kiladis GN, Diaz HF (1989) Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J Clim 2:1069–1090
Kirtman BP (1997) Oceanic rossby wave dynamics and the ENSO period in a coupled model. J Clim 10:1690–1704
Li T, Philander G (1996) On the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial pacific. J Clim 9:2986–2998
McPhaden MJ (1993) Trade wind fetch related variations in equatorial undercurrent depth, speed, and transport. J Geophys Res 98:0148–0227. doi:10.1029/92JC02683
Mechoso CR et al (1995) The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Mon Wea Rev 123:2825–2838
Meehl GA, Gent PR, Arblaster JM, Otto-Bliesner B, Brady E, Craig A (2001) Factors that affect the amplitude of El Niño in global coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 17:515–526
Misra V, DiNapoli SM (2012) Understanding wet season variations over Florida. Clim Dyn 34 doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1382-4
Misra V, L. Marx JLKIII, Kirtnman B (2007) Validating and understanding the ENSO simulation in two coupled climate models. Tellus 59:292–308
Neale RB, Richter JH, Jochum M (2008) The impact of convection on ENSO: from a delayed oscillator to a series of events. J Clim 21:5904–5924
Neelin JD, Battisti DS, Hirst AC, Jin F-F, Wakata Y, Yamagata TS, Zebiak E (1998) ENSO theory. J Geophys Res 103(C7):14261–14290. doi:10.1029/97JC03424
NRC (2010) Assessment of intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and predictability. The National Academies Press
Philander SG (1990) El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, International Geophysical Series, Vol. 46. Academic Press, pp 293
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Wea Rev 115:1606–1626
Shukla J, Hagedorn R, Hoskins B, Kinter J, Marotzke J, Miller M, Palmer TN, Slingo J (2009) Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: a declaration at the world modeling summit for climate prediction. Bull Amer Met Soc 90:175–178
Smith T, Reynolds R, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296
Solomon S et al (2007) Global climate projections. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
Straus DM, Shukla J (2000) Distinguishing between the SST-forced variability and internal variability in mid-latitudes: analysis of observations and GCM simulations. Quart J Roy Met Soc 126:2323–2350
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 93:485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Tziperman E, Cane MA, Zebiak SE (1995) Irregularity and locking to the seasonal cycle in an ENSO prediction model as explained by the quasi periodicity route to chaos. J Atmos Sci 52:293–306
Tziperman E, Zebiak SE, Cane MA (1997) Mechanisms of seasonal—ENSO interaction. J Atmos Sci 54:61–71
Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter. Mon Wea Rev 109:784–812
Wittenberg AT, Rosati A, Lau N-C, Ploshay JJ (2006) GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part III: tropical Pacific climate and ENSO. J Clim 19:698–722
Wu R, Kirtman BP (2005) Near-annual SST variability in the equatorial Pacific in a coupled general circulation model. J Clim 18:4454–4473
Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78:2539–2558
Zebiak S, Cane MA (1987) A model for El Niño Southern Oscillation. Mon Wea Rev 115:2262–2278
Zelle H, Appeldoorn G, Burgers G, van Oldenborgh GJ (2004) The Relationship between sea surface temperature and thermocline depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific. J Phy Ocn 34:643–655
Zhang GJ, Wang H (2006) Toward mitigating the double ITCZ problem in NCAR CCSM3. Geophys Res Lett 33:L06709. doi:10.1029/2005GL025229
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1.1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. This work was supported by the grants from NOAA (NA12OAR4310078, NA10OAR4310215, NA11OAR4310110), USGS (06HQGR0125), and USDA (027865).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Michael, J.P., Misra, V. & Chassignet, E.P. The El Niño and Southern Oscillation in the historical centennial integrations of the new generation of climate models. Reg Environ Change 13 (Suppl 1), 121–130 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0452-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0452-4