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Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds

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Abstract

China is a key vulnerable region of climate change in the world. Climate warming and general increase in precipitation with strong temporal and spatial variations have happened in China during the past century. Such changes in climate associated with the human disturbances have influenced natural ecosystems of China, leading to the advanced plant phenology in spring, lengthened growing season of vegetation, modified composition and geographical pattern of vegetation, especially in ecotone and tree-lines, and the increases in vegetation cover, vegetation activity and net primary productivity. Increases in temperature, changes in precipitation regime and CO2 concentration enrichment will happen in the future in China according to climate model simulations. The projected climate scenarios (associated with land use changes again) will significantly influence Chinese ecosystems, resulting in a northward shift of all forests, disappearance of boreal forest from northeastern China, new tropical forests and woodlands move into the tropics, an eastward shift of grasslands (expansion) and deserts (shrinkage), a reduction in alpine vegetation and an increase in net primary productivity of most vegetation types. Ecosystems in northern and western parts of China are more vulnerable to climate changes than those in eastern China, while ecosystems in the east are more vulnerable to land use changes other than climate changes. Such assessment could be helpful to address the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC Article 2).

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951303) and the German Research Foundation (DFG, He 3622/6). I am grateful to Bill Hare, Wolfgang Cramer, Dominique Bachelet and one anonymous reviewer for their useful comments and suggestions on the early version of this paper.

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  1. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiangshan Nanxincun 20, 100093, Beijing, China

    Jian Ni

  2. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, 14473, Potsdam, Germany

    Jian Ni

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Ni, J. Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds. Reg Environ Change 11 (Suppl 1), 49–64 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0170-0

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