Abstract
The present study aims to investigate Iran’s agrometeorological drought history and its properties using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). For this purpose, precipitation and soil moisture recorded at 99 synoptic stations in Iran during 1985 to 2018 were selected. Based on MSDI time series, drought properties including duration and severity were calculated and trend analysis was carried on using Trend Free Prewhitening Mann Kendall test. Also, the standard normal homogeneity test was applied to investigate chronological drought change-point detection. From agrometeorological perspective, results showed that longer and more severe droughts are more dominant in southern, southeastern, northeastern, and some western regions of the country. Trend analysis revealed that most study stations have rising frequency and significant drying trend especially in winter at central plateau and western regions. Also, we recognized two main periods 1991–2000 and 2006–2010 that many stations experienced change-point in their MSDI time series, mainly because of climatic and anthropogenic causes. Drought properties assessment shows 6 stations with serious upward trend in drought duration and severity in northeast and western regions. Sens’s Slope statistics in these stations was calculated around 1.5 degree per event for drought severity and 1 month per event for drought duration. It is also observed that the 75th quantile of drought severity for most parts of the country is between 13 and 18 and the 75th quantile for drought duration varies between 8 and 24 months in different regions. The probability analysis revealed that most stations have a ratio around 2–5 times increase in drought occurrence probability after change point, leading to longer and more severe droughts in these stations. The paper indicates a serious situation related to agrometeorological drought occurrence, persistence, and severity in Iran because of many climatic and anthropogenic factors over the last 30 years.
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The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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The code generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Isfahani, P.M., Soltani, S. & Modarres, R. Assessing agrometeorological drought trends in Iran during 1985–2018. Theor Appl Climatol 150, 251–262 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04159-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04159-5