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Evaluating rainfall patterns using physics scheme ensembles from a regional atmospheric model

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Abstract

This study evaluated the ability of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) multi-physics ensembles to simulate storm systems known as East Coast Lows (ECLs). ECLs are intense low-pressure systems that develop off the eastern coast of Australia. These systems can cause significant damage to the region. On the other hand, the systems are also beneficial as they generate the majority of high inflow to coastal reservoirs. It is the common interest of both hazard control and water management to correctly capture the ECL features in modeling, in particular, to reproduce the observed spatial rainfall patterns. We simulated eight ECL events using WRF with 36 model configurations, each comprising physics scheme combinations of two planetary boundary layer (pbl), two cumulus (cu), three microphysics (mp), and three radiation (ra) schemes. The performance of each physics scheme combination and the ensembles of multiple physics scheme combinations were evaluated separately. Results show that using the ensemble average gives higher skill than the median performer within the ensemble. More importantly, choosing a composite average of the better performing pbl and cu schemes can substantially improve the representation of high rainfall both spatially and quantitatively.

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Acknowledgments

This work is made possible by funding from the NSW Environmental Trust for the ESCCI-ECL project, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage backed NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling Project (NARCliM), and the Australian Research Council as part of the Discovery Project DP0772665 and Linkage Project LP120200777. Thanks to the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) for funding the CSIRO contribution to this study. This research was undertaken on the NCI National Facility in Canberra, Australia, which is supported by the Australian Commonwealth Government.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, 11 Farrer Place, Queanbeyan, NSW, 2620, Australia

    Fei Ji

  2. CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Marie Ekström & Jin Teng

  3. Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Anzac Pde, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    Jason P. Evans

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  1. Fei Ji
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  2. Marie Ekström
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  3. Jason P. Evans
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  4. Jin Teng
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Correspondence to Fei Ji.

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Ji, F., Ekström, M., Evans, J.P. et al. Evaluating rainfall patterns using physics scheme ensembles from a regional atmospheric model. Theor Appl Climatol 115, 297–304 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0904-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0904-2

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