Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Spatial and temporal variability of summer rainfall over Ethiopia from observations and a regional climate model experiment

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia during the summer (JJAS) season is studied using observations (both station and satellite based) and model simulation data. The simulation dataset is generated using the fourth version of the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) for the period 1989–2005. Ethiopia is first divided into 12 homogeneous regions using criteria including rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), spatial correlation, seasonal cycles, and topographical features. Spatially averaged observed and simulated rainfall time series are then generated and analyzed for each region. Standardized rainfall anomalies of the observations and the simulated data are highly correlated over the northern, western, northeastern, central, and southwestern regions, while a weak correlation is found over the border regions of the country. The dominant modes of rainfall variability are identified using REOF, while time–frequency variations of different dominant modes are described by wavelet analysis. The first leading patterns of rainfall and upper wind (averaged between 100 and 300 hPa) are highly correlated and exhibit similar features between simulation and observations over the northern, western, southwestern, and eastern regions of Ethiopia. The second loading pattern of rainfall and the first loading pattern of low-level wind (averaged between 850 and 1,000 hPa) exhibit a dipole structure across the southwestern and northeastern regions of the country. The dominant signals in the first rotated principal component (RPC) of rainfall and upper level wind fields show a period of 4–5 and 2–3 years, while the dominant signals in the second RPC show a period of 2–3 years at a 0.05 significance level. The correlations of significant RPCs across gauge, gridded, and model rainfall fields with that of low and upper level winds show the presence of a significant relationship (correlation exceeding ∼0.6). Overall, the RegCM4 shows a good performance in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over Ethiopia.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P (2003) The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeorol 4:1147–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anthes RA (1977) A cumulus parameterization scheme utilizing a one-dimensional cloud model. Mon Weather Rev 105:270–286

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anyah RO, Semazzi FHM (2007) Variability of East African rainfall based on multiyear RegCM3 simulations. Int J Climatol 27:357–371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bekele F (1997) Ethiopian use of ENSO information in its seasonal forecasts. Internet J Afr Stud 2. Issue No. 2, March 1997

  • Bhatt U (1989) Circulation regimes of rainfall anomalies in the African-South Asian monsoon belt. J Clim 2:1133–1144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camberlin P (1995) June–September rainfall in northeastern Africa and atmospheric signals over the tropics: a zonal perspective. Int J Climatol 15:773–783

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camberlin P (1997) Rainfall anomalies in the source region of the Nile and their connection with the Indian summer monsoon. J Climate 10:1380–1392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camberlin P, Philippon N (2002) The East African March–May Rainy season: associated atmospheric dynamics and predictability over the 1968–97 period. J Clim 15:1002–1019

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Copsey D, Sutton R, Knight JR (2006) Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region. Geophys Res Lett 33:L19712. doi:10.1029/2006GL027175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis N, Bowden J, Semazzi F, Xie L, Onol B (2009) Customization of RegCM3 Regional Climate Model for eastern Africa and a tropical Indian Ocean domain. J Clim 22:3595–3616. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2388.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars A, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut JN, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. doi:10.1002/qj.828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Degefu W (1987) Some aspects of meteorological drought in Ethiopia. In: Glantz MH (ed) Drought and Hunger in Africa: denying famine a future. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 23–36

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson RE, Henderson SA, Kennedy PJ (1993) Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version 1E as coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. Technical Note NCAR/TN—387 + STR, p 72

  • Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. Meteorol Appl 15:73–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011a) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I observation and modeling. Clim Dyn 37:103–119. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Large scale features affecting Ethiopian rainfall. In: Williams CJR, Kniveton DR (ed). Springer, Dordrecht, pp 13–50

  • Emanuel KA, Rothman MZ (1999) Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J Atmos Sci 56:1756–1782

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fritsch JM, Chappell CF (1980) Numerical prediction of convectively driven mesoscale pressure systems. Part I: convective parameterization. J Atmos Sci 37:1722–1733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modelling revisited. J Geophys Res 104:6335–6352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Bates GT, Nieman SJ (1993a) The multi-year surface climatology of a regional atmospheric model over the western United States. J Climate 6:75–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Bates GT (1993b) Development of a second generation regional climate model (RegCM2). I: boundary layer and radiative transfer processes. Mon Weather Rev 121:2794–2813

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Coppola E, Solmon F, Mariotti L, Sylla MB, Bi X, Elguindi N, Diro GT, Nair V, Giuliani G, Turuncoglu UU, Cozzini S, Guettler I, O’Brien TA, Tawfik AB, Shalaby A, Zakey AS, Steiner AL, Stordal F, Sloan LC, Brankovic C (2012) RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Clim Res 52:7–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grell GA, Dudhia J, Stauffer DR (1994) Description of the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). Technical note NCAR/TN-398-STR, p 121

  • Grist J, Nicholson S (2001) A study of the dynamic factors influencing the rainfall variability in the West African Sahel. J Clim 14:1337–1359

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haile T (1987) A case study of seasonal forecasting in Ethiopia. WMO Regional Association I, Geneva, pp 53–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Holtslag AAM, DeBruin EIF, Pan HL (1990) A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Mon Weather Rev 118:1561–1575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jolliffe IT (1987) Rotation of principal components: some comments. J Climatol 7:507–510. doi:10.1002/joc.3370070506

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jury MR (2010) Ethiopian decadal climate variability. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0200-3

  • Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over Ethiopia. In Proceedings of First Tech. Conf. On Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa, Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, p 53–57

  • Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Briegleb BP, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ (1996) Description of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). Technical Report TN-420-STR. NCAR, Boulder, p 152

    Google Scholar 

  • Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June–September rainfall in Ethiopia. Mon Weather Rev 135:628–650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2005) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, Working Paper55

    Google Scholar 

  • Morlet J, Arehs G, Fourgeau I, Giard D (1982) Wave propagation and sampling theory. Geophysics 47:203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Navarra A, Simoncini V (2010) A guide to empirical orthogonal functions for climate data analysis. Springer, Dordrecht. doi:10.1007/978-90-481-3702-21

  • National Meteorology Service Agency (1996) Climatic and agroclimatic resources of Ethiopia. National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia. Meteorol Res Rep Ser 1(1):1–137

    Google Scholar 

  • North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Small EE, Eltahir EAB (2000) Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. J Geophys Res 105:29579–29594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solomon F, Gao X, Francisco R, Zakey A, Winter J, Ashfaq M, Syed F, Bell JL, Diffanbaugh NS, Kamacharya J, Konare A, Martinez D, da Rocha RP, Sloan LC, Steiner A (2007) Regional climate modeling for the developing world: the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1395–1409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rencher AC (1998) Multivariate statistical inference and applications. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richman MB (1986) Rotation of principal components. J Climatol 6:293–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:153–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Segele ZT, Leslie LM, Lamb PJ (2008) Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: rainfall climatology and interannual variability. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.1681

  • Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie L (2009a) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June–September rainfall. Int J Climatol 29:1075–1100

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009b) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa monsoon. Part I: associations of wavelet-filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. J Clim 22:3396–3421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen Z (2009) Spacial modeling principles in earth sciences. Springer, Dordrecht. doi:10.1007/987-1-4020-9672-3

  • Slingo JM, Spencer H, Hoskins BJ, Berrisford P, Black E (2005) The meteorology of the western Indian Ocean and the influence of the East African Highlands. Philos Trans R Soc A 363:25–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun L, Semazzi FHM, Giorgi F, Ogallo LA (1999a) Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa. Part I: simulation of the short rains of 1988. J Geophys Res 104:6529–6548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun L, Semazzi FHM, Giorgi F, Ogallo LA (1999b) Application of the NCAR regional climate model to eastern Africa. Part II: simulation of interannual variability of short rains. J Geophys Res 104:6549–6562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tadesse T (1994) The influence of the Arabian Sea storms/depressions over the Ethiopian weather. Proc. Int. Conf. On Monsoon Variability and Prediction, WCRP-84 and WMO Tech. Doc. 619, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, pp 228–236

  • Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Webster PJ (1999) Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system. J Climate 12:2679–2690

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 484, ISBN 0521 450713

  • Wang Y, Leung LR, McGregor JL, Lee DK, Wang WC, Ding Y, Kimura F (2004) Regional climate modeling: progress, challenges and prospects. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 82:1599–1628

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the strong support of ICTP through student fellowship (STEP) and HPC donation. The authors also would like to thank NOAA/OAR/ESRL for providing the GPCP data via Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/, ECMWF for providing the ERA-Interim dataset. The SST data are available from the National Ocean and Atmosphere Administration website at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov. The authors also express their thanks to the Ethiopian Meteorological Agency (NMA) for providing rainfall data. Also thanks are given to Samuel, Mulat, Abebaw Terefe, and Abebu Terefe for their help. Finally we thank for all ICTP Earth System Physics members for their support and valuable input for this work.

Author information

Author notes

  1. T. Zeleke

    Present address: Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, P.O. BOX 586, Strada Costeira 11, 34100, Trieste, Italy

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, P.O. BOX 586, Strada Costeira 11, 34100, Trieste, Italy

    F. Giorgi & G. T. Diro

  2. Department of Physics, Science Faculty, Addis Ababa University, P.O.Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    T. Zeleke & G. Mengistu Tsidu

Authors
  1. T. Zeleke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. F. Giorgi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. G. Mengistu Tsidu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. G. T. Diro
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to T. Zeleke.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Zeleke, T., Giorgi, F., Mengistu Tsidu, G. et al. Spatial and temporal variability of summer rainfall over Ethiopia from observations and a regional climate model experiment. Theor Appl Climatol 111, 665–681 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0700-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0700-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation