Abstract
Despite substantial progress in the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting, the prediction of rapid intensification (RI) of TCs is still a key challenge to the operational forecasting agencies. Better understanding of the environmental processes associated with RI of TCs would essentially improve its forecasting capability. The physical processes contributing to RI are not well explored in the North Indian Ocean. In this study, the environmental and structural factors associated with RI of an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) ‘Tauktae’ over the Arabian Sea are investigated using remote-sensing satellites and Doppler weather radar observations. The TC-Tauktae underwent RI during 16–17 May, 2021, and it has wreaked havoc on India’s western coastal states as it moved parallel to the west coast with track length of about 1180 km. The TC-Tauktae exhibited 61 h of eye scenes during its lifetime, which is more than the eye scenes observed during the super cyclone ‘Amphan’ in May 2020 and double the long period (1982–2015) global average of 30 h. Remote sensing-based eye roundness value and upper tropospheric warm-core anomalies showed promising results for the prediction of TC intensity at very short time scale. In addition, several oceanic and environmental parameters, such as sea surface temperature, tropical cyclone heat potential, vertical wind shear, lower level convergence, upper level divergence, relative vorticity, and total precipitable water content, during different stages of the TC-Tauktae have been analyzed using satellite-derived products to identify their roles during RI of the TC. The findings of this study could serve as supplementary information to enhance the accuracy of operational forecasting of RI of TCs over the North Indian Ocean basins.
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(Source: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc)
(Source: https://rapid.imd.gov.in/rapid/)
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Change history
29 October 2022
The numbering of section 3.2.2. has been corrected in original article
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Acknowledgements
The authors would also like to thank the Cyclone Warning, Satellite Meteorology, and Radar Divisions of IMD for providing the relevant data and images used in this study. The use of NOAA-CIMSS satellite-based products, US NAVY-NRL passive microwave satellite images, NOAA reanalysis data, and TCHP data from the NRSC, ISRO are thankfully acknowledged. The authors also thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. The contents and views expressed in the document are the views of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organization they belong to.
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Ahmed, R., Prakash, S., Mohapatra, M. et al. Understanding the rapid intensification of extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Tauktae’ using remote-sensing observations. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 97 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00935-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00935-0