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Estimation of abnormal temperature effects on elderly mortality in South Korea using the temperature deviation index

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Abstract

Recent studies have revealed that the effect of temperature on mortality has changed over time. One of the major contributors to the changes is adaptation. We aimed to understand the relationship between elderly mortality and temperature anomaly using the temperature deviation index (TDI), which considers exposure history. Summertime (May to September) mortality data from 1996 to 2014 and meteorological data from 1971 to 2014 were obtained for 16 regions covering South Korea. The TDI was defined as the target day’s temperature abnormality compared to previous 25 years’ apparent temperature (AT). The relationship between the TDI and elderly mortality for each region was examined by generalized linear modeling with Poisson distribution. Pooled estimates were computed to yield a national effect estimate. Stratified analyses were performed using the percentiles of AT and TDI. Most regions showed positive linear associations, and the associations ranged from 0.4 to 4.3% increase per unit increase of the TDI. In the pooled analyses, a unit increase of the TDI was associated with a 1.4% increase (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93–1.87) in elderly mortality. In the stratified analysis, the relationship between the TDI and elderly mortality was significant at or above the 75th percentile of AT (1.32% increase; 95% CI 0.47–2.22). We suggest a positive association between the TDI and elderly mortality in South Korea. The association observed particularly in the highest percentile of AT in the stratified analysis suggests independent effects of temperature anomaly in addition to those of absolute AT.

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Acknowledgments

This study was partially supported by the Development of Climate-Change Health Impact Assessment and Adaptation Technologies project of the Korea Environment Institute, funded by the Eco-Innovation, Ministry of the Environment [#412-111-001]; the Women Scientists Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT, and Future Planning [#2015R1A1A3A04001325], and Environmental Health Center funded by Ministry of the Environment.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel hill, NC, USA

    Giehae Choi

  2. Korea Environment Institute, Sejong, Republic of Korea

    Hyun-Joo Bae

  3. Institute of Environmental Medicine, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, 103 Daehakro, Jongno-Gu, Seoul, 110-799, Republic of Korea

    Youn-Hee Lim

  4. Environmental Health Center, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Youn-Hee Lim

Authors
  1. Giehae Choi
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  2. Hyun-Joo Bae
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  3. Youn-Hee Lim
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Correspondence to Youn-Hee Lim.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Giehae Choi and Hyun-Joo Bae contributed equally to this work.

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Choi, G., Bae, HJ. & Lim, YH. Estimation of abnormal temperature effects on elderly mortality in South Korea using the temperature deviation index. Int J Biometeorol 61, 1291–1298 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1307-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1307-3

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