Abstract
In developed countries, low latitude and high temperature are positively associated with the population’s ability to adapt to heat. However, few studies have examined the effect of economic status on the relationship between long-term exposure to high temperature and health. We compared heterogeneous temperature-related mortality effects relative to the average summer temperature in high-socioeconomic-status (SES) cities to temperature-related effects in low-SES cities. In the first stage of the research, we conducted a linear regression analysis to quantify the mortality effects of high temperature (at or above the 95th percentile) in 32 cities in Taiwan, China, Japan, and Korea. In the second stage, we used a meta-regression to examine the association between mortality risk with average summer temperature and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In cities with a low GDP per capita (less than 20,000 USD), the effects of temperature were detrimental to the population if the long-term average summer temperature was high. In contrast, in cities with a high GDP per capita, temperature-related mortality risk was not significantly related to average summer temperature. The relationship between long-term average summer temperature and the short-term effects of high temperatures differed based on the city-level economic status.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anderson GB, Dominici F, Wang Y, McCormack MC, Bell ML, Peng RD (2013) Heat-related emergency hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in the Medicare population. Am J Respir Crit Care Med
Arnedo-Pena A, García-Marcos L, Bercedo-Sanz A, Aguinaga-Ontoso I, González-Díaz C, García-Merino Á, Busquets-Monge R, Suárez-Varela MM, Batlles-Garrido J, Blanco-Quirós AA (2012) Prevalence of asthma symptoms in schoolchildren, and climate in west European countries: an ecologic study. Int J Biometeorol 1–10
Bell ML, O’Neill MS, Ranjit N, Borja-Aburto VH, Cifuentes LA, Gouveia NC (2008) Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: a case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico. Int J Epidemiol 37(4):796–804
Blankespoor B, Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Wheeler D (2010) The economics of adaptation to extreme weather events in developing countries. Center for Global Development, Washington, DC
Chau P, Chan K, Woo J (2009) Hot weather warning might help to reduce elderly mortality in Hong Kong. Int J Biometeorol 53(5):461–468
Chung J-Y, Honda Y, Hong Y-C, Pan X-C, Guo Y-L, Kim H (2009) Ambient temperature and mortality: an international study in four capital cities of East Asia. Sci Total Environ 408(2):390–396
DOH (2013) Department of Health in Taiwan. Department of Health, Taiwan. Accessed 18 May 2013
Dominici F, McDermott A, Hastie TJ (2004) Improved semiparametric time series models of air pollution and mortality. J Am Stat Assoc 99(468):938–948
Ferlay J, Shin HR, Bray F, Forman D, Mathers C, Parkin DM (2010) Estimates of worldwide burden of cancer in 2008: GLOBOCAN 2008. Int J Cancer 127(12):2893–2917
Guo Y, Barnett AG, Pan X, Yu W, Tong S (2011) The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Environ Health Perspect 119(12):1719–1725
Hajat S, Kosatky T (2010) Heat-related mortality: a review and exploration of heterogeneity. J Epidemiol Community Health 64(9):753–760
Healy JD (2003) Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors. J Epidemiol Community Health 57(10):784–789
Honda Y, Ono M, Ebi KL (2011) Adaptation to the heat-related health impact of climate change in Japan. In: Climate change adaptation in developed nations. Springer, pp 189–203
Huang C, Vaneckova P, Wang X, FitzGerald G, Guo Y, Tong S (2011) Constraints and barriers to public health adaptation to climate change: a review of the literature. Am J Prev Med 40(2):183–190
ICLEI (2009) Climate and Air Pollution Planning Assistant. http://www.icleiusa.org/tools/cappa. Accessed 20 May 2013
IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report
Kahn ME (2005) The death toll from natural disasters: the role of income, geography, and institutions. Rev Econ Stat 87(2):271–284
Kellenberg DK, Mobarak AM (2008) Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters? J Urban Econ 63(3):788–802
Kim M, Kim H, You M (2013) The role of public awareness in health‐protective behaviours to reduce heat wave risk. Meteorol Appl
Kim K-H, Jung H-J, Kim C (2014) 3. The evolution of environmental policies in South Korea in response to climate change. Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia 46
KMA (2014) Heat wave. KMA. http://hiw.kma.go.kr/?page_id=22911. Accessed 11 Sept 2014
KOSIS (2011) Regional income in 2010. http://kostat.go.kr/. Accessed 23 Apr 2013
Martinez GS, Imai C, Masumo K (2011) Local heat stroke prevention plans in Japan: characteristics and elements for public health adaptation to climate change. Int J Environ Res Public Health 8(12):4563–4581
McMichael AJ, Wilkinson P, Kovats RS, Pattenden S, Hajat S, Armstrong B, Vajanapoom N, Niciu EM, Mahomed H, Kingkeow C, Kosnik M, O'Neill MS, Romieu I, Ramirez-Aguilar M, Barreto ML, Gouveia N, Nikiforov B (2008) International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project. Int J Epidemiol 37(5):1121–1131
Medina-Ramón M, Zanobetti A, Cavanagh DP, Schwartz J (2006) Extreme temperatures and mortality: assessing effect modification by personal characteristics and specific cause of death in a multi-city case-only analysis. Environ Health Perspect 114(9):1331
Michelozzi P, De’Donato FK, Bargagli AM, D’Ippoliti D, De Sario M, Marino C, Schifano P, Cappai G, Leone M, Kirchmayer U (2010) Surveillance of summer mortality and preparedness to reduce the health impact of heat waves in Italy. Int J Environ Res Public Health 7(5):2256–2273
NBSC (2007) 2007 Chinese GDP per capita. http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/. Accessed 23 Apr 2013
O’Neill MS, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2003) Modifiers of the temperature and mortality association in seven US cities. Am J Epidemiol 157(12):1074–1082
Parry ML (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vol 4. Cambridge University Press
Rocklöv J, Forsberg B (2008) The effect of temperature on mortality in Stockholm 1998—2003: a study of lag structures and heatwave effects. Scand J Public Health 36(5):516–523
Stafoggia M, Forastiere F, Agostini D, Biggeri A, Bisanti L, Cadum E, Caranci N, de’Donato F, De Lisio S, De Maria M (2006) Vulnerability to heat-related mortality: a multicity, population-based, case-crossover analysis. Epidemiology 17(3):315–323
Statistics B (2002) Population, land area and GDP per capita of Japan's prefectures. http://www.stat.go.jp/english/index.htm. Accessed 23 Apr 2013
Tan J, Kalkstein L, Huang J, Lin S, Yin H, Shao D (2004) An operational heat/health warning system in Shanghai. Int J Biometeorol 48(3):157–162
Tan J, Zheng Y, Song G, Kalkstein LS, Kalkstein AJ, Tang X (2007) Heat wave impacts on mortality in Shanghai, 1998 and 2003. Int J Biometeorol 51(3):193–200
Toloo G, FitzGerald G, Aitken P, Verrall K, Tong S (2013) Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems: systematic review of epidemiological evidence. Int J Public Health 58(5):667–681
Toya H, Skidmore M (2007) Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters. Econ Lett 94(1):20–25
Viechtbauer W (2010) Conducting meta-analyses in R with the metafor package. J Stat Softw 36(3):1–48
Yu W, Mengersen K, Wang X, Ye X, Guo Y, Pan X, Tong S (2012) Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence. Int J Biometeorol 56(4):569–581
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Women Scientist Research Program (#2012R1A1A3005549) and the Global Research Lab (#K21004000001-10A0500-00710) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology and Environment Research and Technology Development Fund S-8 and S-10 from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
Author contributions
All authors contributed to the data collection and analysis and to the writing of the paper.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
ESM 1
(DOCX 87 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lim, YH., Bell, M.L., Kan, H. et al. Economic status and temperature-related mortality in Asia. Int J Biometeorol 59, 1405–1412 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0950-1
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0950-1