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Evaluation and development of a real-time predictive model for ultrasound investigation of malignant thyroid nodules

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Abstract

Ultrasound investigations and correct identification of malignant thyroid nodules depend on the experience and qualifications of the investigators; thus, a model that provides better evaluation before needle aspiration is desired. Data from 687 patients with 726 thyroid nodules comprising 65 malignant nodules (61 papillary and 4 follicular carcinoma) and 661 benign nodules were used to construct a predictive model. Presence of micro-calcification, taller-than-wide shape, predominant solid echostructure, and irregular margins were shown to be good independent predictive parameters. A thyroid nodule was predicted as malignant with a score ≥3.3. Internal validation of this predictive tool by the bootstrapping method showed excellent overall model performance.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Science Council of the Republic of China (Grant NSC-100-2314-B418-005) and grants from the Far Eastern Memorial Hospital (FEMH-2012-C-028).

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Otolaryngology, Far Eastern Memorial Hospital, #21, Section 2, Nan-Ya South Road, Pan Chiao, New Taipei, 220, Taiwan

    Po-Wen Cheng, Chi-Te Wang, Wu-Chia Lo & Li-Jen Liao

  2. Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, 17, Hsu Chow Road, Taipei, Taiwan

    Hsu-Wen Chou, Chi-Te Wang & Li-Jen Liao

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  1. Po-Wen Cheng
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  2. Hsu-Wen Chou
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  3. Chi-Te Wang
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  5. Li-Jen Liao
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Correspondence to Li-Jen Liao.

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Cheng, PW., Chou, HW., Wang, CT. et al. Evaluation and development of a real-time predictive model for ultrasound investigation of malignant thyroid nodules. Eur Arch Otorhinolaryngol 271, 1199–1206 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00405-013-2629-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00405-013-2629-3

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