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Changing Indian monsoon rainfall patterns under the recent warming period 2001–2018

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Abstract

The temperature and moisture distribution over the Indian subcontinent are changing in recent decades with the accelerated global temperature rise. These changes in distribution result in shifting wet/dry and warm/cold zones within India. The differential warming rate over land and surrounding ocean determine intricate dynamics of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and make the Indian region a more susceptible towards drought and flood events. In recent time, the frequent flooding over northwest India viz., over Gujrat and southern Rajasthan is attributed to the weakening of prevailing heat-trough circulation (northerly wind) and gradual increase in the convective activity (enhanced moist static energy). The recent weakening of the southwesterly reduced transport of moisture leading to reduced rainfall over Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and northeast India; while the strengthening of the same enhanced the moisture transport and hence the rainfall over northwest India. In addition, northward shift of the sinking airmass over equatorial region, in recent time, leads to the decrease of the rainfall over the southern Indian region. The recent changes in rainfall pattern have shifted the climate of IGP and northeast India towards the relatively arid regime and that of western India towards a relatively moist regime, which supports the possible greening of the Thar region. The recent change in rainfall distribution in the form of wet and dry zones across the country will impact the water resource, food security as well as the fragile local ecosystems.

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Availability of data and material

The datasets used in the study are freely available for the research community. However, the data will be provided on request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the reviewers for their insightful comments which has immensely improved the quality of the manuscript. Authors are thankful to the CRU, NCEP/NCAR, GPCC, NOAA, ERA-Interim and the University of Delaware for making the data freely available for the research purpose.

Funding

The authors have not received any research grant while working on this scientific problem and preparation of manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Sciences, Sri Sri University, Cuttack, Odisha, India

    P. Maharana

  2. Birbal Sahni Institute of Paleosciences, 53 University Road, Lucknow, India

    R. Agnihotri

  3. School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India

    A. P. Dimri

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  1. P. Maharana
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  2. R. Agnihotri
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  3. A. P. Dimri
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Contributions

RA and APD conceptualized the idea of the work. PM analysed the data and wrote the manuscript. All authors provided their inputs while interpreting the results and shaping the manuscript.

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Correspondence to A. P. Dimri.

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Maharana, P., Agnihotri, R. & Dimri, A.P. Changing Indian monsoon rainfall patterns under the recent warming period 2001–2018. Clim Dyn 57, 2581–2593 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05823-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05823-8

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