Abstract
Mechanisms governing interactions between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin wave activity, and El Niño development are reexamined using the oceanic component of the Zebiak–Cane (ZCocn) model of the Pacific basin. Prescribed wind stress from a free run of the super-parameterized Community Climate System Model version 4 (SP-CCSM4) is used to force ZCocn and the simulated El Niño events are analyzed with respect to their relationship with the MJO wind forcing. Composites of El Niño events strongly influenced by the MJO show the earlier onset of a flattened, El Niño-like state of the thermocline. In contrast, the composites of El Niño events not influenced by the MJO winds show a later onset, and are dominated by a transient-like thermocline along with periods of upwelling Kelvin wave activity. Sensitivity experiments performed to identify whether modifying MJO wind stress and oceanic Kelvin wave activity influences these features show that although MJO contributes to the development of these features, it is not necessarily the primary driver. The relative phasing between MJO and oceanic Kelvin wave activity seems to be the most important factor governing the influence of MJO on El Niño. When in phase and collocated with Kelvin wave activity, MJO westerly wind stress contributes to the amplification of preexisting downwelling Kelvin waves, leading to earlier onset and greater strength of the resulting El Niño events. The out-of-phase interactions between MJO and oceanic Kelvin waves explain the observed lack of influence of MJO onto some El Niño events.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Batstone C, Hendon HH (2005) Characteristics of stochastic variability associated with ENSO and the role of the MJO. J Clim 18:1773–1789. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3374.1
Battisti D (1988) Dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere ocean model. J Atmos Sci 45:2889–2919. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045%3c2889:DATOAW%3e2.0.CO;2
Chang P, Wang B, Li T, Ji L (1994) Interactions between the seasonal cycle and the southern oscillation—frequency entrainment and chaos in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Geophys Res Lett 21:2817–2820. https://doi.org/10.1029/94GL02759
Chen D, Lian T, Fu C et al (2015) Strong influence of westerly wind bursts on El Nino diversity. Nat Geosci 8:339–345. https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO2399
Cravatte S, Picaut J, Eldin G (2003) Second and first baroclinic Kelvin modes in the equatorial Pacific at intraseasonal timescales. J Geophys Res-Oceans 108:3266. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JC001511
Cravatte S, Boulanger JP, Picaut J (2004) Reflection of intraseasonal equatorial Rossby waves at the western boundary of the Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 31:L10301. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019679
Enfield DB (1987) The intraseasonal oscillation in eastern Pacific sea levels: how is it forced? J Phys Oceanogr 17:1860–1876. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1987)017%3c1860:TIOIEP%3e2.0.CO;2
Fedorov AV, Philander SG (2001) A stability analysis of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions: bridging measurements and theory for El Nino. J Clim 14:3086–3101. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c3086:ASAOTO%3e2.0.CO;2
Flugel M, Chang P (1996) Impact of dynamical and stochastic processes on the predictability of ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 23:2089–2092. https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL01959
Flugel M, Chang P, Penland C (2004) The role of stochastic forcing in modulating ENSO predictability. J Clim 17:3125–3140. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c3125:TROSFI%3e2.0.CO;2
Gebbie G, Eisenman I, Wittenberg A, Tziperman E (2007) Modulation of westerly wind bursts by sea surface temperature: a semistochastic feedback for ENSO. J Atmos Sci 64:3281–3295. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS4029.1
Goddard L, Philander SG (2000) The energetics of El Nino and La Nina. J Clim 13:1496–1516. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c1496:TEOENO%3e2.0.CO;2
Hayes S, Mangum L, Picaut J et al (1991) Toga-Tao—a moored array for real-time measurements in the tropical Pacific-Ocean. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 72:339–347. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1991)072%3c0339:TTAMAF%3e2.0.CO;2
Hendon HH, Liebmann B, Glick JD (1998) Oceanic Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Atmos Sci 55:88–101. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055%3c0088:OKWATM%3e2.0.CO;2
Hendon HH, Wheeler MC, Zhang C (2007) Seasonal dependence of the MJO–ENSO relationship. J Clim 20:531–543
Hu Z-Z, Kumar A, Jha B et al (2012) An analysis of warm pool and cold tongue El Nios: air-sea coupling processes, global influences, and recent trends. Clim Dyn 38:2017–2035. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1224-9
Hu S, Fedorov AV, Lengaigne M, Guilyardi E (2014) The impact of westerly wind bursts on the diversity and predictability of El Niño events: an ocean energetics perspective: Hu et al.: WWB and ENSO diversity: energetics view. Geophys Res Lett 41:4654–4663. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059573
Jin FF (1997) An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. 1. Conceptual model. J Atmos Sci 54:811–829. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054%3c0811:AEORPF%3e2.0.CO;2
Jin F, Neelin J, Ghil M (1994) El-Nino on the devils staircase—annual subharmonic steps to chaos. Science 264:70–72. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.264.5155.70
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–472. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3c0437:TNYRP%3e2.0.CO;2
Kapur A, Zhang C (2012) Multiplicative MJO forcing of ENSO. J Clim 25:8132–8147. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00609.1
Kapur A, Zhang C, Zavala-Garay J, Hendon HH (2012) Role of stochastic forcing in ENSO in observations and a coupled GCM. Clim Dyn 38:87–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1070-9
Kessler WS, Kleeman R (2000) Rectification of the Madden-Julian oscillation into the ENSO cycle. J Clim 13:3560–3575. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c3560:ROTMJO%3e2.0.CO;2
Kessler W, Mcphaden M, Weickmann K (1995) Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific. J Geophys Res-Oceans 100:10613–10631. https://doi.org/10.1029/95JC00382
Kirtman BP (1997) Oceanic Rossby wave dynamics and the ENSO period in a coupled model. J Clim 10:1690–1704. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3c1690:ORWDAT%3e2.0.CO;2
Kleeman R, Moore AM (1997) A theory for the limitation of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients. J Atmos Sci 54:753–767. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054%3c0753:ATFTLO%3e2.0.CO;2
Kousky VE, Higgins RW (2007) An alert classification system for monitoring and assessing the ENSO cycle. Weather Forecast 22:353–371. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF987.1
Lian T, Chen D, Tang Y, Wu Q (2014) Effects of westerly wind bursts on El Nino: a new perspective. Geophys Res Lett 41:3522–3527. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059989
Lopez H, Kirtman BP, Tziperman E, Gebbie G (2013) Impact of interactive westerly wind bursts on CCSM3. Dyn Atmos Oceans 59:24–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2012.11.001
Lybarger ND, Stan C (2018) The effect of the MJO on the energetics of El Niño. Clim Dyn 51:2825–2839. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4047-5
Madden R, Julian P (1972) Description of global-scale circulation cells in tropics with a 40–50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29:1109-+. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029%3c1109:dogscc%3e2.0.co;2
Marshall AG, Alves O, Hendon HH (2009) A coupled GCM analysis of MJO activity at the onset of El Nino. J Atmos Sci 66:966–983. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2855.1
McPhaden MJ, Taft BA (1988) Dynamics of seasonal and intraseasonal variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific. J Phys Oceanogr 18:1713–1732. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1988)018%3c1713:DOSAIV%3e2.0.CO;2
McPhaden MJ, Yu X (1999) Equatorial waves and the 1997–98 El Niño. Geophys Res Lett 26:2961–2964. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL004901
Moore AM, Kleeman R (1996) The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Q J R Meteorol Soc 122:1405–1446. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712253409
Moore AM, Kleeman R (1999a) Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim 12:1199–1220
Moore AM, Kleeman R (1999b) The nonnormal nature of El Nino and intraseasonal variability. J Clim 12:2965–2982. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012%3c2965:TNNOEN%3e2.0.CO;2
Munnich M, Cane M, Zebiak S (1991) A study of self-excited oscillations of the tropical ocean atmosphere system. 2. Nonlinear cases. J Atmos Sci 48:1238–1248. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048%3c1238:ASOSEO%3e2.0.CO;2
Neelin J (1991) The slow sea-surface temperature mode and the fast-wave limit—analytic theory for tropical interannual oscillations and experiments in a hybrid coupled model. J Atmos Sci 48:584–606. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048%3c0584:TSSSTM%3e2.0.CO;2
Neelin JD, Battisti DS, Hirst AC et al (1998) ENSO theory. J Geophys Res-Oceans 103:14261–14290. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC03424
Penland C, Matrosova L (1994) A balance condition for stochastic numerical-models with application to the El-Nino-Southern oscillation. J Clim 7:1352–1372. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007%3c1352:ABCFSN%3e2.0.CO;2
Penland C, Sardeshmukh P (1995) The optimal-growth of tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 8:1999–2024. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008%3c1999:TOGOTS%3e2.0.CO;2
Perez CL, Moore AM, Zavala-Garay J, Kleeman R (2005) A comparison of the influence of additive and multiplicative stochastic forcing on a coupled model of ENSO. J Clim 18:5066–5085. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3596.1
Roundy PE, Kiladis GN (2006) Observed relationships between oceanic kelvin waves and atmospheric forcing. J Clim 19:5253–5272. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3893.1
Seiki A, Takayabu YN (2007) Westerly wind bursts and their relationship with intraseasonal variations and ENSO. Part I: statistics. Mon Weather Rev 135:3325–3345. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3477.1
Seiki A, Takayabu YN, Yoneyama K et al (2009) The oceanic response to the Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO. Sola 5:93–96. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2009-024
Spall MA, Pedlosky J (2005) Reflection and transmission of equatorial Rossby waves. J Phys Oceanogr 35:363–373. https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-2691.1
Stan C, Xu L (2014) Climate simulations and projections with a super-parameterized climate model. Environ Model Softw 60:134–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.06.013
Suarez M, Schopf P (1988) A delayed action oscillator for Enso. J Atmos Sci 45:3283–3287. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045%3c3283:ADAOFE%3e2.0.CO;2
Thompson CJ, Battisti DS (2000) A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part I: model development. J Clim 13:2818–2832. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3c2818:ALSDMO%3e2.0.CO;2
Tziperman E, Cane M, Zebiak S (1995) Irregularity and locking to the seasonal cycle in an Enso prediction model as explained by the quasi-periodicity route to chaos. J Atmos Sci 52:293–306. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052%3c0293:IALTTS%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang C (2001) A unified oscillator model for the El Niño-southern oscillation. J Clim 14:98–115. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c0098:AUOMFT%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Barcilon A, Fang Z (1999) Stochastic dynamics of El Nino-southern oscillation. J Atmos Sci 56:5–23. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056%3c0005:SDOENO%3e2.0.CO;2
Wang W, Chen M, Kumar A, Xue Y (2011) How important is intraseasonal surface wind variability to real-time ENSO prediction?: ISV IMPACTS ON ENSO PREDICTION. Geophys Res Lett 38:1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047684
Zebiak S (1989) On the 30–60 day oscillation and the prediction of Elnino. J Clim 2:1381–1387. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002%3c1381:OTDOAT%3e2.0.CO;2
Zebiak S, Cane M (1987) A model El-Nino southern oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:2262–2278. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115%3c2262:AMENO%3e2.0.CO;2
Zhang CD (2001) Intraseasonal perturbations in sea surface temperatures of the equatorial eastern Pacific and their association with the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Clim 14:1309–1322. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c1309:IPISST%3e2.0.CO;2
Zhang CD, Gottschalck J (2002) SST anomalies of ENSO and the Madden–Julian oscillation in the equatorial Pacific. J Clim 15:2429–2445. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c2429:SAOEAT%3e2.0.CO;2
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by US NSF Grants AGS-1338427 and AGS-1211848, US NOAA Grants NA14OAR4310160, NA12NWS4680022, and US NASA Grant NNX14AM19G. This research used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by National Science Foundation Grant number OCI-1053575. We would like to thank Dr. Jieshun Zhu of ESSIC and three anonymous reviewers for helping us improve our manuscript significantly.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lybarger, N.D., Stan, C. Revisiting MJO, Kelvin waves, and El Niño relationships using a simple ocean model. Clim Dyn 53, 6363–6377 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04936-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04936-5