Abstract
Three extreme cold events invaded China during the early winter period between December 2020 to mid-January 2021 and caused drastic temperature drops, setting new low-temperature records at many stations during 6–8 January 2021. These cold events occurred under background conditions of low Arctic sea ice extent and a La Niña event. This is somewhat expected since the coupled effect of large Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Pacific usually favors cold event occurrences in Eurasia. Further diagnosis reveals that the first cold event is related to the southward movement of the polar vortex and the second one is related to a continent-wide ridge, while both the southward polar vortex and the Asian blocking are crucial for the third event. Here, we evaluate the forecast skill for these three events utilizing the operational forecasts from the ECMWF model. We find that the third event had the highest predictability since it achieves the best skill in forecasting the East Asian cooling among the three events. Therefore, the predictability of these cold events, as well as their relationships with the atmospheric initial conditions, Arctic sea ice, and La Niña deserve further investigation.
摘要
2020年12月至2021年1月上旬, 我国爆发了三次全国性极端寒冷事件, 导致气温急剧下降, 多个气象站的低温都创下了新纪录. 前人的研究表明, 前期秋季北极海冰偏少及热带太平洋海表温度偏冷通常有利于欧亚大陆冷事件的发生. 观测表明, 2020年9月北极海冰范围是自1979年以来的第二低值, 并且太平洋La Niña事件自2020年8月开始发展, 在冬季达到成熟位相, 这些因素都为东亚极端冷事件的发生提供了有利条件, 但这些因素并不能完全解释这些冷事件的发生.
进一步的诊断表明, 第一次冷事件与极涡南移有关, 第二次冷事件与欧亚大陆高压脊的发展有关, 而极涡南移和亚洲阻塞的发展是第三次冷事件发生的关键因素. 此外, 利用欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 的业务预报产品, 对这三个事件的预报技巧进行了评估. 对比发现, ECMWF对第三次冷过程中东亚地区的降温具有较高的预报技巧, 说明第三次冷事件可能具有较长的预报时效, 这可能与第三次事件强度较强有关. 然而, 这些寒冷事件的可预测性, 以及它们与大气初始条件、 北极海冰和La Niña的关系, 还需要更深一步的研究.
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The authors acknowledge the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.: 41790475, 42005046, and 41790473) and three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments in improving this paper.
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This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21.
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Dai, G., Li, C., Han, Z. et al. The Nature and Predictability of the East Asian Extreme Cold Events of 2020/21. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 566–575 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1057-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1057-3