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Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

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Abstract

Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño and La Niña. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.

摘要

季风爆发的预测对农业和社会经济的规划有着重要作用,数以百万计人们的生活都依赖于季风雨季的到来.本文利用GloSea5季节预测模型研究了南海季风爆发年际变化提前三个月的可预测性.这种可预测性的主要来源是与ENSO有关的太平洋海温的预测技巧.南海夏季风爆发是大范围季节转型的标志,代表了整个亚洲夏季风爆发的第一阶段.尽管随后东亚地区降水由于受到次季节尺度和天气尺度事件的影响而造成可预测性降低,但对东亚夏季风建立年际变化的预测仍然能够为用户提供季风雨季到来或早或晚这种有用的信息.

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Acknowledgements

This work and its contributors (GM, AC, RC, ND and AS) were supported by the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. DZ was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605078).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

    Gill M. Martin, Ruth E. Comer, Nick J. Dunstone & Adam A. Scaife

  2. NCAS-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK

    Amulya Chevuturi

  3. College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK

    Adam A. Scaife

  4. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Daquan Zhang

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  1. Gill M. Martin
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Correspondence to Gill M. Martin.

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Martin, G.M., Chevuturi, A., Comer, R.E. et al. Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 36, 253–260 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-8100-z

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