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Predicting impacts of climate change on the biogeographic patterns of representative species richness in Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf

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Abstract

The research on the biological ecology of the Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica is inadequate under the increasing threat from climate change, especially for Antarctic fish and krill. The Dynamic Bioclimatic Envelope Model (DBEM) has been widely used in predicting the variation of species distribution and abundance in ocean and land under climate change; it can quantify the spatiotemporal changes of multi population under different climate emission scenarios by identifying the environmental preferences of species. The species richness and geographical pattern of six Antarctic representative species around Prydz Bay-Amery ice shelf were studied under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios from 1970 to 2060 using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), and Max Planck Institute (MPI) earth system models. The results showed that the species richness decreased as a whole, and the latitude gradient moved to the pole. The reason is that ocean warming, sea ice melting, and human activities accelerate the distribution changes of species biogeographical pattern, and the habitat range of krill, silverfish, and other organisms is gradually limited, which further leads to the change of species composition and the decrease of biomass. It is obvious that priority should be given to Prydz Bay-Amery ice shelf in the planning of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in East Antarctica.

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Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Science at https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2331 (Cheung et al., 2016). The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in FishBase at https://www.fishbase. org, the Oceanic Biogeographic Information System at http://iobis.org, Sea Life Base at https://www.sealifebase.org, and Sea Around Us Project at https://www.seaaroundus.org.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Mariculture (Ministry of Education), College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China

    Yugui Zhu, Shiyao Zheng & Bin Kang

  2. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou, 511458, China

    Yugui Zhu & Jiansong Chu

  3. Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V5K0A1, BC, Canada

    Gabriel Reygondeau & William W. L. Cheung

  4. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Max Planck, Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06501, USA

    Gabriel Reygondeau

  5. College of Marine Life Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003, China

    Yan Sun, Qianshuo Zhao & Jiansong Chu

  6. Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Yunfeng Wang

Authors
  1. Yugui Zhu
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  2. Shiyao Zheng
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  3. Bin Kang
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  4. Gabriel Reygondeau
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  5. Yan Sun
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  6. Qianshuo Zhao
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  7. Yunfeng Wang
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  8. William W. L. Cheung
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  9. Jiansong Chu
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to William W. L. Cheung or Jiansong Chu.

Additional information

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42176234), the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Creative Program (No. JDB20210211), and the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (No. GML2019ZD0402)

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Zhu, Y., Zheng, S., Kang, B. et al. Predicting impacts of climate change on the biogeographic patterns of representative species richness in Prydz Bay-Amery Ice Shelf. J. Ocean. Limnol. 41, 1504–1518 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-022-2068-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-022-2068-3

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