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Landscape Change Scenarios: Developing Participatory Tools for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change

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Abstract

The impacts of climate change on people and ecosystems have been studied at both local and global levels. The environment is expected to change significantly, and the role of local communities in shaping more resilient landscapes is considered crucial. This research focuses on rural regions highly susceptible to climate change impacts. The objective was to enhance conditions for climate resilient development on a microlocal level by encouraging diverse stakeholders to participate in developing sustainable landscape management. This paper introduces a novel interdisciplinary mixed-method approach to landscape scenario development, combining research-driven and participatory approaches and integrating quantitative methods with qualitative ethnographic inquiry. Two scenarios for 2050 were built: a research-driven, business-as-usual scenario accounting for mandatory adaptation policies and an optimistic scenario combining research-driven and participatory approaches, including additional feasible community-based measures. While the differences between the projected land use seem to be relatively subtle, the optimistic scenario would in fact lead to a considerably more resilient landscape. The results highlight the role of interdisciplinarity and ethnography in gaining good local knowledge and building an atmosphere of trust. These factors supported the research credibility, strengthened the legitimacy of the intervention in local affairs, and contributed to the active participation of the stakeholders. We argue that despite its time, intense effort and limited direct policy impact, the mixed-method approach is highly suitable for the microlocal level. It encourages citizens to think about how their environment is threatened by climate change impacts and increases their willingness to contribute to climate resilience.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to sincerely thank all participants in our research who generously shared their time, experiences, and insights with us. We would also like to thank the reviewers for their detailed and valuable comments. The work is part of the project TL02000048/Stories of Drought, which was co-financed from the state budget by the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic under the ÉTA Programme. The authors took advantage of climate change scenarios developed by MT within the research program SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions“ (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797). The authors would also like to thank Monika Bláhová and Daniela Semerádová (CzechGlobe) for preparing Fig. 3 maps.

Author contributions

M.Z., H.S. and M.T. wrote the main manuscript text, H.S. prepared Figs. 1, 2, 4 and 5, M.T. prepared Figs. 3 and 6. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Charles University, Faculty of Humanities, Prague, Czech Republic

    Markéta Zandlová

  2. Silva Tarouca Research Institute for Landscape and Ornamental Gardening, Průhonice, Czech Republic

    Hana Skokanová

  3. Global Change Research Institute, Brno, Czech Republic

    Miroslav Trnka

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  1. Markéta Zandlová
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  2. Hana Skokanová
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  3. Miroslav Trnka
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Correspondence to Hana Skokanová.

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Zandlová, M., Skokanová, H. & Trnka, M. Landscape Change Scenarios: Developing Participatory Tools for Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change. Environmental Management 72, 631–656 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-023-01840-x

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