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Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach

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Abstract

This paper examines how the volatility of local economies, represented by uncertainty over future land rents, affects urban sprawl. We develop a theoretic model that links sprawl to shocks to expected rent from future land development, among other factors. The econometric analysis draws upon panel data from US metropolitan areas. To measure urban sprawl, we construct a distinctive measure that captures the distribution of population density within metropolitan areas. Using a proxy for uncertainty over future land rents, we confirm the theoretic prediction that across US metropolitan areas, higher levels of uncertainty are associated with lower levels of sprawl.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Administrative Sciences and Informatics, Palestine Polytechnic University, West Bank, Palestine

    Belal Fallah

  2. Swank Professor of Rural-Urban Policy and Professor, Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

    Mark Partridge

  3. Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada

    M. Rose Olfert

Authors
  1. Belal Fallah
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  2. Mark Partridge
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  3. M. Rose Olfert
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Correspondence to Mark Partridge.

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Fallah, B., Partridge, M. & Olfert, M.R. Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach. Ann Reg Sci 49, 589–617 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-011-0466-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-011-0466-0

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