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Historical Times and Turning Points in a Turbulent Century: 1914, 1945, 1989 and 2014?

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Addressing Global Environmental Challenges from a Peace Ecology Perspective

Part of the book series: The Anthropocene: Politik—Economics—Society—Science ((APESS,volume 4))

Abstract

This chapter discusses six historical times. Cosmic and geological time are concepts used in the context of the history of the universe and earth. Technical and structural times (in the framework of ‘technical revolutions’ and ‘international orders’) can hardly be modified by governments and policymakers. Conjunctural time (in economics and politics) and short-lived events have in some cases become triggers for turning points. They fundamentally change global structures that are usually beyond the influence of policymakers in office. These six historical times and changing global contexts, political turning points, global transformations and transitions are discussed for international orders in the twentieth century. The chapter argues that the Industrial Revolution triggered the silent transition in geological time that resulted in the global transformation of technological, economic and political systems and of international relations. The catastrophe of 1914 led to World War I and the order of Versailles collapsed with the outbreak of World War II. The global peaceful change of 1989 resulted not in a period of sustainable peace but in a new global disorder and in global environmental challenges. It is uncertain whether humankind will understand the consequences of a situation where “we are in the Anthropocene” and “we are the threat” and “we alone can become the solution”.

I am grateful for critical comments and valuable suggestions to Ms Juliet Bennett, University of Sydney, Australia; Dr. Carl Bruch, Washington DC, USA; Prof. Dr. Simon Dalby, Waterloo, Canada; Prof. Dr. Kalevi Holsti, Vancouver, Canada; Prof. Dr. Ken Conca, Washington DC, USA. I am also grateful to Nobel laureate Prof. Dr. Paul J. Crutzen (2016), who taught me more about the human predicament with his work on the nuclear winter, the Anthropocene and the sustainability revolution than my own discipline.

PD Dr. Hans Günter Brauch, chairman, Peace Research and European Security Studies (AFES-PRESS) from 1987; co-convenor, IPRA’s Ecology and Peace Commission (2012–2016), Mosbach, Germany; email: brauch@afes-press.de.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Inspired by Fernand Braudel’s idea of the ‘long sixteenth century’ (c.1450–1640), the concept of the ‘long nineteenth century’, was according to Eric Hobsbawm the period between the years 1789 and 1914 that he had analysed in The Age of Revolution: Europe 1789–1848 (1962), The Age of Capital: 1848–1875 (1975), and The Age of Empire: 1875–1914 (1987). In The Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914–1991 (1994), Hobsbawm discussed the short twentieth century (1914–1991). See for the German historical debate: Bauer (2004), Kocka (10 2002), Osterhammel (2009).

  2. 2.

    See “Cosmic time”; at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_time.

  3. 3.

    See “Physical cosmology”; at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physical_cosmology. See also: Encyclopaedia Britannica (151998, vol. 28: 665–667); Balbi, Amedeo: “Cosmology and time”; at: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.3823v1.pdf; Rugh, S. E.; Zinkernagel, H.: “On the physical basis of cosmic time”; at: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/4020/1/CosmicTime.pdf (10 August 2015).

  4. 4.

    See for background on the “geological time scale”, at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_time_scale (21 January 2015).

  5. 5.

    See at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_time_scale, based on these sources: “NASA Scientists React to 400 ppm Carbon Milestone” (15 January 2014).

  6. 6.

    For the Holocene, see at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene; Roberts (1998); Mackay et al. (2003).

  7. 7.

    For the “Anthropocene”, see at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropocene; (Crutzen and Stoermer 2000; Crutzen 2002; Steffen et al. 2011; Zalasiewicz et al. 2008, 2010).

  8. 8.

    See: “Anthropocene”, at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropocene; see the Working Group on the ‘Anthropocene’, International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS); at: http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/workinggroups/anthropocene/; see also the most recent “Newsletter of the Anthropocene Working Group”, September 2014; at: http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/workinggroups/anthropo/anthropoceneworkinggroupnewslettervol5.pdf.

  9. 9.

    See “Neolithic Revolution”; at: https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_revolution (12 August 2015).

  10. 10.

    Gronenborn/Terberger (2014), Sirocko (3 2012), Zimmermann (2009), Schmidt (2009).

  11. 11.

    See “Industrial Revolution”, at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution.

  12. 12.

    See the entries on: “Industrial Revolution” and “industrial era”, in: Brockhaus Enzyklopädie (212006, vol. 13: 260–261).

  13. 13.

    See: NOAA; at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ (13 August 2015).

  14. 14.

    Seasonal fluctuation in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) at the Mauna Loa Observatory. Monthly data for the Atmospheric CO2 Since 1958. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); at: http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Trend/ (21 January 2015).

  15. 15.

    See: NOAA Media Release: “Carbon Dioxide at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory reaches new milestone: Tops 400 ppm”, 19 May 2013; at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html.

  16. 16.

    See “Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by gases (1970–2010)” (IPCC 2014a: 5).

  17. 17.

    Grunberg, Isabelle; Risse-Kappen, Thomas, 1992: “A Time for Reckoning? Theories of International Relations and the End of the Cold War”, in: Allan, Pierre; Goldmann, Kjell (Eds.): The End of the Cold War (Dordrecht: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers): 104–46.

  18. 18.

    See SIPRI (2014): “Changes of military expenditure by region (2012–2013)”; see also SIPRI Fact Sheet (April 2015): Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2014; at: http://books.sipri.org/files/FS/SIPRIFS1504.pdf (14 August 2015).

  19. 19.

    See the discussion at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Transformation_(book).

  20. 20.

    See publications on: “Green growth and sustainable development”, at: http://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/.

  21. 21.

    See G7 Leaders’ Declaration, Schloss Elmau, Germany, 8 June 2015; at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/06/08/g-7-leaders-declaration (14 August 2015).

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  1. Mosbach, Germany

    Hans Günter Brauch

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Peace Research and European Security Studies (AFES-PRESS), Mosbach, Baden-Württemberg, Germany

    Hans Günter Brauch

  2. Center for Regional Multidisciplinary Studies (CRIM), National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

    Úrsula Oswald Spring

  3. Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Juliet Bennett

  4. Center for Regional Multidisciplinary Studies (CRIM), National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

    Serena Eréndira Serrano Oswald

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Brauch, H.G. (2016). Historical Times and Turning Points in a Turbulent Century: 1914, 1945, 1989 and 2014?. In: Brauch, H., Oswald Spring, Ú., Bennett, J., Serrano Oswald, S. (eds) Addressing Global Environmental Challenges from a Peace Ecology Perspective. The Anthropocene: Politik—Economics—Society—Science, vol 4. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30990-3_2

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