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Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Hazard Potential in the Yang River Basin, Thailand

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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Water Resources and Water Use Sectors

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impacts of climate change on flood hazard in Yang River Basin under future climatic scenarios with coupling of a physically-based distributed hydrological model, Block-wise application of TOPMODEL using Muskingum-Cunge flow routing (BTOPMC) and hydraulic model, HEC-RAS. The bias corrected outputs of a regional climate model PRECIS were used to construct climate scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The extreme runoff pattern and synthetic inflow hydrographs for 25, 50 and 100 year return flood were derived from an extreme flood of 2007 which were then fed into HEC-RAS model to generate the landuse and flood inundation relationship for the basin. Results indicate that croplands are being mostly affected up to 188 km2 for 100 year return period in case of baseline period. Furthermore, total area inundated for the corresponding return periods for baseline period are 205, 224 and 240 km2. This amount of inundated area is projected to occur corresponding to 16 year flood in the period of 2020s under A2 scenario. Similarly the 25 year probable flood event is expected to have the most relative change (+30.90 %) for 2050s for same scenario and in case of B2 scenario, it is expected to be +30.97 % of the total inundated area for 2080s relative to baseline period. The probable increase in flood hazard under climate change scenarios threatens the increased inundation of croplands area and indicates the potential damage in food production and its impacts on livelihood of local people.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to appreciate Dr. Jun Magome and the BTOPMC Development Team of Yamanashi University, Japan for providing the model to conduct this study.

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  1. Water Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Klong Luang, Thailand

    Sangam Shrestha

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  1. Sangam Shrestha
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Correspondence to Sangam Shrestha .

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Shrestha, S. (2014). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Hazard Potential in the Yang River Basin, Thailand. In: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Water Resources and Water Use Sectors. Springer Water. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09746-6_4

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