Abstract
The world faces a new political reality in the post-global financial crisis landscape, namely, the ascendance of populism and the breakdown of standard liberal democratic approaches to economic policymaking. The ability of populist leaders and parties to tap into disaffection with globalization, multinational businesses, and macroeconomic policy have manifest itself as a “populist moment” in many developed and developing countries around the world. This chapter introduces the effects of this populist moment on business in the future, with a focus on three specific areas: (1) how populism creates uncertainty on macroeconomic policies, affecting firm investment and financing decisions; (2) how the effects of populism on political institutions change the abilities which firms need to cultivate; and (3) how populist policies affect value chains, sourcing, and talent acquisition. The main conclusion of this analysis is that the political forces underpinning populism require firms to devote resources to new abilities and abilities unlike those used before, while at the same time seeing productive investments reduced in an environment of uncertainty. The watchword for business globally will be the flexibility to deal with an increasingly complex and uncertain world.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Famously, Chinese Premier Zhou En-Lai was asked in 1971 by the US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger his thoughts on the significance of the French Revolution, and the Premier answered that “it was too early to tell.” It has since emerged that Zhou was likely responding thinking that the subject was the Paris riots of 1968 and not in fact the French Revolution.
References
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as a fundamental cause of long-run growth. In P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (pp. 385–472). Amsterdam: North Holland/Elsevier.
Albanesi, S. (2007). Inflation and inequality. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1088–1114.
Albertazzi, D., & McDonnell, D. (2008). Introduction: The sceptre and the spectre. In D. Albertazzi & D. McDonnell (Eds.), Twenty-first century populism: The spectre of Western European democracy (pp. 1–11). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Alizadeh, P. (2013). The political economy of petro populism and reform, 1997–2011. In P. Alizadeh & H. Hakimian (Eds.), Iran and the global economy (pp. 92–117). London: Routledge.
Amore, M. D., & Bennedsen, M. (2013). The value of local political connections in a low-corruption environment. Journal of Financial Economics, 110(2), 387–402.
Aytaç, S. E., & Öniş, Z. (2014). Varieties of populism in a changing global context: The divergent paths of Erdoğan and Kirchnerismo. Comparative Politics, 47(1), 41–59.
Beaulieu, M. C., Cosset, J. C., & Essaddam, N. (2006). Political uncertainty and stock market returns: Evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’économique, 39(2), 621–642.
Becker, S. O., Fetzer, T., & Novy, D. (2017). Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis. Economic Policy, 32(92), 601–650.
Benczes, I. (2016). From goulash communism to goulash populism: The unwanted legacy of Hungarian reform socialism. Post-Communist Economies, 28(2), 146–166.
Bertrand, M., Kramarz, F., Schoar, A., & Thesmar, D. (2018). The cost of political connections. Review of Finance, 22(3), 849–876.
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623–685.
Bova, F., & Vance, M. (2019). Uncertainty avoidance and the timing of employee stock option exercise. Journal of International Business Studies, 50(5), 740–757.
Brennan, J. P. (2007). Prolegomenon to neoliberalism: The political economy of populist Argentina, 1943–1976. Latin American Perspectives, 34(3), 49–66.
Canovan, M. (1999). Trust the people! Populism and the two faces of democracy. Political Studies, 47(1), 2–16.
Cardoso, F. H., & Faletto, E. (1979). Dependency and development in Latin America. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Carlton, D. W. (1982). The disruptive effect of inflation on the organization of markets. In R. E. Hall (Ed.), Inflation: Causes and effects (pp. 139–152). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Chen, Y., Chen, D., Wang, W., & Zheng, D. (2018). Political uncertainty and firms’ information environment: Evidence from China. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 37(1), 39–64.
Cosset, J. C., & Suret, J. M. (1995). Political risk and the benefits of international portfolio diversification. Journal of International Business Studies, 26(2), 301–318.
Cuervo-Cazurra, A., Ciravegna, L., Melgarejo, M., & Lopez, L. (2018). Home country uncertainty and the internationalization-performance relationship: Building an uncertainty management capability. Journal of World Business, 53(2), 209–221.
Cumming, D. J., Wood, G., & Zahra, S. A. (2016). The rise of right-wing populism and its effect on HRM. Available at SSRN 2879078.
Damill, M., Frenkel, R., & Rapetti, M. (2015). Macroeconomic policy in Argentina during 2002–2013. Comparative Economic Studies, 57(3), 369–400.
Danis, W. M., Chiaburu, D. S., & Lyles, M. A. (2010). The impact of managerial networking intensity and market-based strategies on firm growth during institutional upheaval: A study of small and medium-sized enterprises in a transition economy. Journal of International Business Studies, 41(2), 287–307.
Delios, A., & Henisz, W. J. (2003). Political hazards, experience, and sequential entry strategies: The international expansion of Japanese firms, 1980–1998. Strategic Management Journal, 24(11), 1153–1164.
Devinney, T. M., & Hartwell, C. A. (2020). Varieties of populism. Global Strategy Journal, 10(1), 32–66.
Dhingra, S., Ottaviano, G., Rappoport, V., Sampson, T., & Thomas, C. (2018). UK trade and FDI: A post-Brexit perspective. Papers in Regional Science, 97(1), 9–24.
Dornbusch, R., & Edwards, S. (1990). Macroeconomic populism. Journal of Development Economics, 32(2), 247–277.
Eisenhardt, K. M., & Bourgeois, L. J., III. (1988). Politics of strategic decision making in high-velocity environments: Toward a midrange theory. Academy of Management Journal, 31(4), 737–770.
Ferguson, T., & Voth, H. J. (2008). Betting on Hitler—The value of political connections in Nazi Germany. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(1), 101–137.
Fitzpatrick, M. (1983). The definition and assessment of political risk in international business: A review of the literature. Academy of Management Review, 8(2), 249–254.
Fomina, J., & Kucharczyk, J. (2016). The specter haunting Europe: Populism and protest in Poland. Journal of Democracy, 27(4), 58–68.
Fukuyama, F. (2014). Political order and political decay: From the industrial revolution to the globalization of democracy. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Furceri, D. (2009). Fiscal convergence, business cycle volatility, and growth. Review of International Economics, 17(3), 615–630.
Grosse, R., & Mesquita, L. F. (Eds.). (2007). Can Latin American firms compete? New York: Oxford University Press.
Hamilton, S. (2009). The populist appeal of deregulation: Independent truckers and the politics of free enterprise, 1935–1980. Enterprise & Society, 10(1), 137–177.
Hanley, S. (2004). Getting the right right: Redefining the centre-right in post-communist Europe. Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 20(3), 9–27.
Hartwell, C. A. (2018a). The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 46(2), 598–615.
Hartwell, C. A. (2018b). The “hierarchy of institutions” reconsidered: Monetary policy and its effect on the rule of law in interwar Poland. Explorations in Economic History, 68, 37–70.
Hartwell, C. A., & Malinowska, A. P. (2019). Informal institutions and firm valuation. Emerging Markets Review, 40, 100603.
Hatzigeorgiou, A., & Lodefalk, M. (2016). The Brexit trade disruption revisited. The Estey Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, 17(1), 41–58.
Henisz, W. J., & Delios, A. (2004). Information or influence? The benefits of experience for managing political uncertainty. Strategic Organization, 2(4), 389–421.
Henisz, W., Mansfield, E. D., & Von Glinow, M. A. (2010). Conflict, security, and political risk: International business in challenging times. Journal of International Business Studies, 41(5), 759–764.
Howlett, M., Capano, G., & Ramesh, M. (2018). Designing for robustness: Surprise, agility and improvisation in policy design. Policy and Society, 37(4), 405–421.
Huang, T., Wu, F., Yu, J., & Zhang, B. (2015). Political risk and dividend policy: Evidence from international political crises. Journal of International Business Studies, 46(5), 574–595.
Ijtsma, P., Levell, P., Los, B., & Timmer, M. P. (2018). The UK’s participation in global value chains and its implications for post-Brexit trade policy. Fiscal Studies, 39(4), 651–683.
Jaffrelot, C., & Tillin, L. (2017). Populism in India. In C. R. Kaltwasser, P. A. Taggart, P. O. Espejo, & P. Ostiguy (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of populism (pp. 179–194). New York: Oxford University Press.
Jansen, R. S. (2011). Populist mobilization: A new theoretical approach to populism. Sociological Theory, 29(2), 75–96.
Jens, C. E. (2017). Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from US gubernatorial elections. Journal of Financial Economics, 124(3), 563–579.
Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. The Journal of Finance, 67(1), 45–83.
Kazin, M. (2016). Trump and American populism. Foreign Affairs, 95(6), 17–24.
Keane, J. (2018). Brexit and global value chains: The costs of transition to new trade governance structures. Navigating Uncertainty: Towards a Post-Brexit Trade and Development Agenda, 97, 25.
Kedia, B. L., & Bilgili, T. V. (2015). When history matters: The effect of historical ties on the relationship between institutional distance and shares acquired. International Business Review, 24(6), 921–934.
Kingsley, A. F., Vanden Bergh, R. G., & Bonardi, J. P. (2012). Political markets and regulatory uncertainty: Insights and implications for integrated strategy. Academy of Management Perspectives, 26(3), 52–67.
Larraín, F., & Meller, P. (1991). The socialist-populist Chilean experience, 1970–1973. In R. Dornbusch & S. Edwards (Eds.), The macroeconomics of populism in Latin America (pp. 175–221). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Madrid, R. L. (2008). The rise of ethnopopulism in Latin America. World Politics, 60(3), 475–508.
Mascarenhas, B. (1982). Coping with uncertainty in international business. Journal of International Business Studies, 13(2), 87–98.
Mead, W. R. (2017). The Jacksonian revolt: American populism and the liberal order. Foreign Affairs, 96(2), 2–7.
Miller, K. D. (1993). Industry and country effects on managers’ perceptions of environmental uncertainties. Journal of International Business Studies, 24(4), 693–714.
Milliken, F. J. (1987). Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: State, effect, and response uncertainty. Academy of Management Review, 12(1), 133–143.
Moser, W. R. (1982). Populism, a Wisconsin heritage: Its effect on judicial accountability in the state. Marquette Law Review, 66(1), 1–98.
Mudambi, R. (2018). Knowledge-intensive intangibles, spatial transaction costs, and the rise of populism. Journal of International Business Policy, 1(1–2), 44–52.
Nguyen, Q., Kim, T., & Papanastassiou, M. (2018). Policy uncertainty, derivatives use, and firm-level FDI. Journal of International Business Studies, 49(1), 96–126.
Pappas, T. S. (2014). Populist democracies: Post-authoritarian Greece and post-communist Hungary. Government and Opposition, 49(1), 1–23.
Park, S. H., & Luo, Y. (2001). Guanxi and organizational dynamics: Organizational networking in Chinese firms. Strategic Management Journal, 22(5), 455–477.
Pástor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2013). Political uncertainty and risk premia. Journal of Financial Economics, 110(3), 520–545.
Peng, M. W. (2006). Global strategy. Stamford: Thomson South-Western.
Phongpaichit, P., & Baker, C. J. (2005). “Business populism” in Thailand. Journal of Democracy, 16(2), 58–72.
Purg, D., Lalić, A. B., & Pope, J. A. (2018). A cross-country study of management and leadership development needs in dynamically changing societies. In D. Purg, A. B. Lalić, & J. A. Pope (Eds.), Business and society (pp. 11–26). Cham: Springer.
Richardson, N. P. (2009). Export-oriented populism: Commodities and coalitions in Argentina. Studies in Comparative International Development (SCID), 44(3), 228–255.
Rode, M., & Revuelta, J. (2015). The wild bunch! An empirical note on populism and economic institutions. Economics of Governance, 16(1), 73–96.
Rodrik, D. (2018). Populism and the economics of globalization. Journal of International Business Policy, 1(1–2), 12–33.
Samuels, D., & Zucco, C., Jr. (2014). Lulismo, petismo, and the future of Brazilian politics. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 6(3), 129–158.
Schoenherr, D. (2019). Political connections and allocative distortions. The Journal of Finance, 74(2), 543–586.
Schuler, D. A., Rehbein, K., & Cramer, R. D. (2002). Pursuing strategic advantage through political means: A multivariate approach. Academy of Management Journal, 45(4), 659–672.
Stanley, B. (2008). The thin ideology of populism. Journal of Political Ideologies, 13(1), 95–110.
Taguieff, P. A. (1995). Political science confronts populism: From a conceptual mirage to a real problem. Telos, 1995(103), 9–43.
Tomassi, M. (1996). High inflation: Resource misallocations and growth effects. Estudios de Economia, 23(2), 157–177.
Urbinati, N. (2013). The populist phenomenon. Raisons Politiques, 51(3), 137–154.
Vandenbussche, H., Connell Garcia, W., & Simons, W. (2019). Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit. CESifo working paper no. 7473. Available at SSRN https://ssrn.com/abstract=3338827
Weyland, K. (1999). Neoliberal populism in Latin America and Eastern Europe. Comparative Politics, 31(4), 379–401.
Weyland, K. (2001). Clarifying a contested concept: Populism in the study of Latin American politics. Comparative Politics, 34(1), 1–22.
Wu, W., Wu, C., & Rui, O. M. (2012). Ownership and the value of political connections: Evidence from China. European Financial Management, 18(4), 695–729.
Xu, N., Chen, Q., Xu, Y., & Chan, K. C. (2016). Political uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from China. Journal of Corporate Finance, 40, 276–295.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Hartwell, C.A., Devinney, T.M. (2021). Adapting to Populism’s (Current and Future) Moment: Political Uncertainty and Business Strategy. In: Park, S.H., Gonzalez-Perez, M.A., Floriani, D.E. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Corporate Sustainability in the Digital Era. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42412-1_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42412-1_13
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-42411-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-42412-1
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)