Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Statistical detection and no-detection of rainfall change trends and breaks in semiarid Tunisia—50+ years over the Merguellil agro-hydro-climatic reference basin

  • AGIC 2017
  • Published:
Arabian Journal of Geosciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rainfall variability is an important feature of semiarid climates with major effects on hydrology, and beyond on key water-dependent societal aspects. Eventual changes in rainfall variability are a strong driver of change of hydrological processes, resources, and hazards, up to catchment signatures and spatial arrangements. We deal with observed precipitations and subsequent statistical coefficients available from a network of 15 rainfall gauges over and around the Merguellil catchment (1175 km2), with series ranging up to the 1961–2013 period. We look for eventual annual trends and breakpoints with a set of methods: Mann Kendall test, Pettitt test, Hubert segmentation procedure, Buishand U statistic, and Lee Heghinian Bayesian procedure. The results underline oscillation of dry and wet periods; several studied rain gauges (Tella, Oueslatia forêt, Majbar, Kesra forêt, Henchir Bhima, and Haffouz DGRE) denote significant trends in annual precipitation. Some breaks are detected but they are not synchronous. These methods reveal the variability of rainfall regimes in the semiarid region and provide a synoptic view of detection and no-detection of symptoms of change. This work gives opportunities to water stakeholders and climate experts in understanding the relationships between climate variability and water availability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Baccour H, Slimani M, Cudennec C (2012) Etude synoptique conjointe des structures spatiales de l’évapotranspiration et de variables climatiques corrélées en Tunisie. Hydrol Sci J 57(4):818–829. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.672986

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bai X, van der Leeuw S, O’Brien K, Berkhout F, Biermann F, Brondizio ES, Cudennec C, Dearing J, Duraiappah A, Glaser M, Revkin A, Steffen W, Syvitski J (2016) Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: a new research agenda. Glob Environ Chang 39:351–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.017

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bargaoui Z, Tramblay Y, Lawin AE, Servat E (2014) Seasonal precipitation variability in regional climate simulations over Northern basins of Tunisia. Int J Climatol 34:235–248. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3683

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Batisani N, Yarnal B (2010) Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy. Appl Geogr 30:483–489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bois P (1986) Contrôle des séries chronologiques corrélées par étude du cumul des résidus. Deuxièmes Journées Hydrologiques de l’ORSOM, Montpellier, pp 89–100

    Google Scholar 

  • Boudhraâ H, Cudennec C (2015) Autopsie des événements hydrométéorologiques extrêmes de 1969 en Tunisie/retrospective forensics of the 1969 extreme hydrometeorological events in Tunisia. PIAHS 369:169–173. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-169-2015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boudhraâ H, Cudennec C, Slimani M, Andrieu H (2009) Hydrograph transposition between basins through a geomorphology-based deconvolution–reconvolution approach. IAHS Publ 333:76–83

    Google Scholar 

  • Bouzaine S, Lafforgue A (1986) Monographie des oueds Zéroud et Merguellil, Tunis

  • Boyer JF (2002) Software Khronostat chronological series of statistical analysis. IRD UR2, Programe 21 FRIEND AOC, Team UMRGBE Hydrology, University of Montpellier II, Ecole des Mines de Paris

  • Buishand TA (1982) Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J Hydrol 58:11–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buishand TA (1984) Tests for detecting a shift in the mean of hydrological time series. J Hydrol 58:51–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ceballo A, Martínez-Fernández J, Luengo-Ugidos MA (2004) Analysis of rainfall trends and dry periods on a pluviometric gradient representative of Mediterranean climate in the Duero Basin, Spain. J Arid Environ 58:215–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ceola S, Montanari A, Krueger T, Dyer F, Kreibich H, Westerberg I, Carr G, Cudennec C, Elshorbagy A, Savenije H, van der Zaag P, Rosbjerg D, Aksoy H, Viola F, Petrucci G, MacLeod K, Croke B, Ganora D, Hermans L, Polo MJ, Xu Z, Borga M, Helmschrot J, Toth E, Ranzi R, Castellarin A, Hurford A, Brilly M, Viglione A, Blöschl G, Sivapalan M, Domeneghetti A, Marinelli A, Di Baldassarre G (2016) Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment—a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. Hydrol Sci J 61(16):2803–2817. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1230674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chargui S, Cudennec C, Slimani M, Pouget JC, Aouissi J (2009) Robust and flexible hydroinformatics to accont for rainfall space-time variability in a data-sparse region. IAHS Publ 333:295–301

    Google Scholar 

  • Chargui S, Gharbi H, Slimani M (2013) Runoff responses at different watershed scales in semi arid region: exploration of a developed rainfall runoff model (Merguellil and Skhira watershed, Central Tunisia). Earth Sci Inform 6:127–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cudennec C (2007) On width function-based unit hydrographs deduced from separately random self-similar river networks and rainfall variability. Hydrol Sci J 52(1):230–237. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.1.230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cudennec C, Slimani M, Le Goulven P (2005) Accounting for sparsely observed rainfall space–time variability in a rainfall–runoff model of a semiarid Tunisian basin. Hydrol Sci J 50:617–630

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cudennec C, Pouget JC, Boudhraâ H, Slimani M, Nasri S (2006) A multi-level and multi-scale structure of river network geomorphometry with potential implications towards basin hydrology. In: Sivapalan M et al (eds) Prediction in ungauged basins: promises and progress, vol 303. IAHS Publ, New York, pp 422–430 http://iahs.info/redbooks/303.htm

    Google Scholar 

  • Cudennec C, Leduc C, Koutsoyiannis D (2007) Dryland hydrology in Mediterranean regions–a review. Hydrol Sci J 52(6)1077–1087. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.6.1077

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cudennec C, Pouget JC, Chargui S, Boudhraa H, Jaffrezic A, Slimani M (2009) Geomorphology-structured hydroinformatics for downward basin modelling with flexible accounting for net rainfall variability. IAHS Publ 331:254–260

    Google Scholar 

  • Cudennec C, Gelfan A, Ren L, Slimani M (2016) Hydrometeorology and hydroclimate. Adv Meteorol 1487890, 4 p. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/1487890, 1, 4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De la Casa A, Nasello O (2010) Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina. Atmos Res 95:419–427

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feki H, Slimani M, Cudennec C (2012) Incorporationg elevation in rainfall interpolation in Tunisia using geostatistical methods. Hydrol Sci J 57(7):1294–1314. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.710334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feki H, Slimani M, Cudennec C (2017) Geostatistically based optimization of a rainfall monitoring network extension—case of the climatically-heterogeneous Tunisia. Hydrol Res 48(2):514–541. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2016.256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herath S, Ratnayake U (2004) Monitoring rainfall trends to predict adverse impacts—a case study from Sri Lanka (1964–1993). Glob Environ Chang 14:71–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hubert P, Carbonnel JP (1987) Approche statistique de l’aridification de l’Afrique de l’Ouest. J Hydrol 95:165–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hubert P, Carbonnel JP, Chaouche A (1989) Segmentation des séries hydrométéorologiques - Application à des séries de précipitations et de débits de l’Afrique de l’Ouest. J Hydrol 110:349–367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IRD (2002) Khronostat: logiciel d’analyse statistique de séries chronologiques

  • Jebari S, Berndtsson R, Bahri A, Boufaroua M (2008) Exceptional rainfall characteristics related to erosion risk in semiarid Tunisia. O Hyd J 25–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jimenez Cisneros BE, Oki T, Arnell NW et al (2014) Freshwater resources. In: CB Field, VR Barros, DJ Dokken et al (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-PartB FINAL.pdf

  • Kampata JM, Parida BP, Moalafhi DB (2008) Trend analysis of rainfall in the headstreams of the Zambezi River Basin in Zambia. Phys Chem Earth 33:621–625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation measures, Charles Griffin

  • Kingumbi A, Bargaoui Z, Hubert P (2005) Investigation of the rainfall variability in central Tunisia. Hydrol Sci J 50:493–508

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar V, Jain SK (2010) Trends in seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days in Kashmir Valley in the last century. Quat Int 212:64–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • L’hote Y, Mahé G, Some B, Triboulet JP (2002) Analysis of a Sahelian annual rainfall index from 1896 to 2000; the drought continues. Hydrol Sci J 47(4):563–572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lacombe G, Cappelaere B, Leduc C (2008) Hydrological impact of water and soil conservation works in the Merguellil catchment of central Tunisia. J Hydrol 359:210–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laraque A, Mahé G, Orange D, Marieu B (2001) Spatiotemporal variation in hydrological regimes within central Africa during the XXth century. J Hydrol 245:104–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Goulven P, Leduc C, Bachta M-S, Poussin, J-C (2009) Sharing scarce resources in a Me-diterranean river basin: Wadi Merguellil in Central Tunisia. In: F Molle, P Wester (eds) River basins: trajectories, societies, environments. Cabi ed., Wallingford, pp 147–170

  • Leduc C, Beji R, Calvez R (2003) Les ressources en eau du barrage d'el Haouareb et des nappes adjacentes, vallée du Merguellil, Tunisie centrale Actes de l’atelier du PCSI (France)

  • Leduc C, Ben Ammar S, Favreau G, Beji R, Virrion R, Lacombe G, Tarhouni J, Aouadi C, Zenati Chelli B, Jebnoun N, Oi M, Michelot J L, Zouari K (2007) Impacts of hydrological changes in the Mediterranean zone: environmental modifications and rural development in the Merguellil catchment, central Tunisia. Hydrol Sci J 52(6)

  • Leduc C, Pulido-Bosch A, Remini B (2017a) Anthropization of groundwater resources in the Mediterranean region: processes and challenges. Hydrogeol J 25:1529–1547. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1572-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leduc C, Massuel S, Riaux J, Calvez R, Ogilvie A, Benaïssa N, Lachaal F, Jenhaoui Z (2017b) Changement global et ressources en eau souterraines dans la région de Kairouan (Tunisie centrale): évolutions rapides et a long terme. Proceedings Congress on Groundwater and Global Change in the Western Mediterranean Granada, pp 263-296

  • Lee AFS, Heghinian SM (1977) A shift of the mean level in sequence of independent normal random variables: a Bayesian approach. Teehnometries 19:503–506

    Google Scholar 

  • Lionello P, Abrantes F, Gacic M, Planton S, Trigo R, Ulbrich U (2014) The climate of the Mediterranean region: research progress and climate change impacts. Reg Environ Chang 14:1679–1684. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0666-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Yang H, Cudennec C, Gain AK, Hoff H, Lawford R, Qi J, de Strasser L, Yillia PT, Zheng C (2017) Challenges in operationalizing the water-energy-food nexus. Hydrol Sci J 62(11):1714–1720. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1353695

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lubès-Niel N, Masson JM, Paturel JE, Servat E (1998) Variabilité climatique et statistiques. Etude par simulation de la puissance et de la robustesse de quelques tests utilisés pour vérifier l’homogénéité de chroniques. J Water Sci 3:383–408

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahé G, Paturel JE (2009) 1896–2006 Sahelian annual rainfall variability and runoff increase of Sahelian Rivers. Compt Rendus Geosci 34:538–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McMillan H, Montanari A, Cudennec C, Savenije H, Kreibich H, Krueger T, Liu J, Meija A, van Loon A, Aksoy H, Di Baldassarre G, Huang Y, Mazvimavi D, Rogger M, Sivakumar B, Bibikova T, Castellarin A, Chen Y, Finger D, Gelfan A, Hannah D, Hoekstra A, Li H, Maskey S, Mathevet T, Mijic A, Acuña A, Polo M, Rosales S, Smith P, Viglione A, Srinivasan V, Toth E, van Nooijen R, Xia J (2016) Panta Rhei 2013-2015: global perspectives on hydrology, society and change. Hydrol Sci J 61(7):1174–1191. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1159308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nasri S, Cudennec C, Albergel J, Berndtsson R (2004) Use of a geomorphological transfer function to model design floods in small hillside catchments in semiarid Tunisia. J Hydrol 287(1–4):197–213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.10.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogilvie A, Le Goulven P, Leduc C, Calvez R, Mulligan M (2016) Réponse hydrologique d’un bassin semi-aride aux événements pluviométriques et aménagements de versant (bassin du Merguellil, Tunisie centrale). Hydrol Sci J 61(2):441–453

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paturel JE, Servat E, Lubès-Niel H, Delattre MO (1997) Variabilité climatique et analyse de séries pluviométriques de longue durée en Afrique de l’Ouest et Centrale non sahélienne dans un contexte de variabilité climatique. Hydrol Sci J 43

  • Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28:126–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slimani M, Cudennec C, Feki H (2007) Structure du gradient pluviométrique de la transition Méditerranée–Sahara en Tunisie: déterminants géographiques et saisonnalité. Hydrol Sci J 52:1088–1102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xoplaki E, Gonzalez-Rouço JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2004) Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends. Clim Dyn 23:63–78. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0422-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xoplaki E, Trigo RM, García-Herrera R, Barriopedro D, D’Andrea F, Gimeno L, Gouveia C, Hernandez E, Kuglitsch FG, Mariotti A, Nieto R, Pinto JG, PozoVázquez D, Saaroni H, Toreti A, Trigo IF, VicenteSerrano SM, Yiou P, Ziv B (2012) Large-scale atmospheric circulation driving extreme climate events in the mediterranean and its related impacts. The Climate of the Mediterranean Region :347–502. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-416042-2.00006-9

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Young G, Demuth S, Mishra A, Cudennec C (2015) Hydrological sciences and water security: an overview. In: C Cudennec et al (ed) Hydrological sciences and water security: past, present and future, vol 366. PIAHS, pp 1–9. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-366-1-2015

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Georesources Laboratory, Water Research and Technology Centre, Borj Cedria Ecopark, PO Box 273, 8020, Soliman, Tunisia

    Sameh Chargui, Asma Jaberi & Fethi Lachaal

  2. Higher Institute of the Sciences and Techniques of Waters of Gabès, 6072, Zrig Gabès, Tunisia

    Asma Jaberi

  3. UMR1069, Soil Agro and HydroSystem, Agrocampus Ouest, INRA, 35000, Rennes, France

    Christophe Cudennec

  4. IRD, UMR G-EAU, 361 Rue Jean-François Breton, BP 5095, 34196, Montpellier Cedex 5, France

    Rogez Calvez

  5. Water Sciences and Technique Laboratory, National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia, 43 Avenue Charles, Tunis, Tunisia

    Mohamed Slimani

Authors
  1. Sameh Chargui
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Asma Jaberi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Christophe Cudennec
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Fethi Lachaal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Rogez Calvez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Mohamed Slimani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sameh Chargui.

Additional information

This article is part of the Topical Collection on Geology of North Africa and Mediterranean Regions

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chargui, S., Jaberi, A., Cudennec, C. et al. Statistical detection and no-detection of rainfall change trends and breaks in semiarid Tunisia—50+ years over the Merguellil agro-hydro-climatic reference basin. Arab J Geosci 11, 675 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4001-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4001-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation