Macroeconomic Forecasting

Abstract

Macroeconomic forecasts are ‘guesses’ of the future values of important macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP, inflation, or the unemployment rate. These forecasts inform the decisions of business, policymakers, investors, and consumers. Macroeconomic forecasts are regularly constructed by government agencies and private companies. For example, every quarter the Bank of England publishes its Inflation Report, which contains forecasts of inflation over the next three years. Federal Reserve policymakers also rely on forecasts from the Green Book; however, unlike the Bank of England, the Fed does not release its forecasts to the public. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia summarizes private sector macroeconomic forecasts for the United States in its quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters.