Macroeconomic forecasts are ‘guesses’ of the future values of important macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP, inflation, or the unemployment rate. These forecasts inform the decisions of business, policymakers, investors, and consumers. Macroeconomic forecasts are regularly constructed by government agencies and private companies. For example, every quarter the Bank of England publishes its Inflation Report, which contains forecasts of inflation over the next three years. Federal Reserve policymakers also rely on forecasts from the Green Book; however, unlike the Bank of England, the Fed does not release its forecasts to the public. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia summarizes private sector macroeconomic forecasts for the United States in its quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters.
KeywordsBank of England Dynamic adjustment Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models Expectations Federal Reserve System Forecasting Leading indicators index Macroeconomic forecasting Mean squared forecast error Mitchell, W.C. Probability theory Structural econometric models Time series analysis Vector autoregressions
JEL ClassificationsD4 D10
- Bank of England. 2007. Inflation report. Online. Available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/index.htm. Accessed 19 Feb 2007.
- Elliott, G., C.W.J. Granger, and A.C. Timmerman, ed. 2006. Handbook of economic forecasting. Vol. 1. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 2007. Survey of professional forecasters. Online. Available at http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/spf. Accessed 19 Feb 2007.