The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics

2018 Edition
| Editors: Macmillan Publishers Ltd

Seasonal Variation

  • Pietro Balestra
Reference work entry


When observations are taken at regular intervals within a year (by month or by quarter), most economic time series are likely to exhibit some degree of seasonal variation. An obvious example, known to everyone, is the existence of a ‘high’ and ‘low’ season for air transportation and other recreational activities. Perhaps less obvious, but equally important, is the presence of a seasonal pattern in most economic aggregates such as the index of production, price indices, the unemployment rate and so on.

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  1. Dagum, E.B. 1978. Modelling, forecasting and seasonally adjusting economic time series with the X-11-ARIMA method. The Statistician 27(3,4): 203–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Lovell, M.C. 1963. Seasonal adjustment of economic time series and multiple regression analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association 58(304): 993–1010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Pietro Balestra
    • 1
  1. 1.