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Communicating and Using Ensemble Flood Forecasts in Flood Incident Management: Lessons from Social Science

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Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

Abstract

This chapter explores the practical challenges of communicating and using ensemble forecasts in operational flood incident management. It reviews recent social science research on the variety and effectiveness of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) visualization methods and on the cognitive and other challenges experienced by forecast recipients in understanding probabilistic forecasts correctly. To explore how those generic findings from the research literature work out in actual operational practice, the chapter then discusses a series of case studies detailing the development, communication, and use of HEPS products in various institutional contexts in France, Britain, and internationally at the EU and global levels. The chapter concludes by drawing out some broader lessons from those experiences about how to communicate and use HEPS more effectively.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, King’s College London, Strand, London, WC2R 2LS, UK

    David Demeritt

  2. School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, PO Box 227, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6AB, UK

    Elisabeth M. Stephens

  3. Université Paris Est Marne-la-Vallée, Labex Futurs Urbains (LATTS, LEESU, Lab’Urba), Marne-la-Vallée, France

    Laurence Créton-Cazanave

  4. Université Grenoble 1, PACTE UMR 5194 (CNRS, IEPG, UJF, UPMF), Grenoble, France

    Céline Lutoff

  5. Laboratoire d’étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE), CNRS, Grenoble, France

    Isabelle Ruin

  6. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Sébastien Nobert

Authors
  1. David Demeritt
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  2. Elisabeth M. Stephens
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  3. Laurence Créton-Cazanave
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  4. Céline Lutoff
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  5. Isabelle Ruin
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  6. Sébastien Nobert
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to David Demeritt .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Qingyun Duan

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

    Florian Pappenberger

  3. European Commission DG Joint Research Ce, Ispra, Italy

    Jutta Thielen

  4. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

    Andy Wood

  5. University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

    Hannah L. Cloke

  6. Consulting Hydrologist, Annapolis, USA

    John C. Schaake

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Demeritt, D., Stephens, E.M., Créton-Cazanave, L., Lutoff, C., Ruin, I., Nobert, S. (2016). Communicating and Using Ensemble Flood Forecasts in Flood Incident Management: Lessons from Social Science. In: Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Wood, A., Cloke, H., Schaake, J. (eds) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_44-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_44-1

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