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Present and Future Requirements for Using and Communicating Hydro-Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems for Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Applications

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Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

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Abstract

This chapter provides representative examples for using and communicating hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) for short-, medium-, and long-term applications. The needs of the specific end users in disaster management, flood forecasting centers, and water management are highlighted.

In the first section, the requirements are presented for a nowcasting system based on radar data designed to provide sufficient lead time for decision makers responsible for urban areas. The generation of rainfall ensembles from radar measurements is described using the so-called string of beads methodology. The aspects required by decision makers for flood management are followed by the technical set-up and constraints.

The second section illustrates how short-term HEPS can contribute to increasing the predictability of flash flood events on a regional scale with complementary indicators to higher-resolution local information systems based on short-term forecasts and observations.

In the third section, the benefits of hydrological ensembles are elaborated for flood forecasting and shipping for a well-controlled, trans-national river basin such as the river Rhine. For several years, medium-range ensemble prediction systems have been explored for flood forecasting in medium to large river basins such as the Rhine.

The last section describes the requirements of HEPS for water management and how they are used at the example of hydropower in Sweden. In snow-dominated hydrological regimes such as in Scandinavia, reservoirs need to be carefully managed in order to have enough capacity for storing spring flood volume, while keeping enough water for securing the required power generation. The chapter concludes with the strengths and the limitations of HEPS for various applications.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Satellite Applications and Hydrology Group, School of Civil Engineering, Surveying and Construction Management, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa

    Geoff Pegram

  2. Universite Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France

    Damien Raynaud

  3. Water Management Centre Netherlands, Rijkswaterstaat Traffic and Water Management, P.O. Box 17, 8200 AA, Lelystad, The Netherlands

    Eric Sprokkereef

  4. Bundesamt für Umwelt, Ittigen, Switzerland

    Martin Ebel

  5. Bundesanstalt fuer Gewaesserkunde, Koblenz, Germany

    Silke Rademacher

  6. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

    Jonas Olsson, Cristina Alionte-Eklund, Barbro Johansson, Göran Lindström & Henrik Spångmyr

Authors
  1. Geoff Pegram
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  2. Damien Raynaud
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  3. Eric Sprokkereef
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  4. Martin Ebel
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  6. Jonas Olsson
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  7. Cristina Alionte-Eklund
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  9. Göran Lindström
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  10. Henrik Spångmyr
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Correspondence to Geoff Pegram .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Qingyun Duan

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

    Florian Pappenberger

  3. European Commission DG Joint Research Ce, Ispra, Italy

    Jutta Thielen

  4. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

    Andy Wood

  5. University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

    Hannah L. Cloke

  6. Consulting Hydrologist, Annapolis, USA

    John C. Schaake

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Pegram, G. et al. (2015). Present and Future Requirements for Using and Communicating Hydro-Meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems for Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Applications. In: Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Wood, A., Cloke, H., Schaake, J. (eds) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_39-1

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