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Bayesian Statistics: Applications to Earthquake Engineering

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Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering

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Synonyms

Bayesian statistics; Earthquake probabilities; Fragility analysis; Ground motion simulation; Seismic activity matrix; Seismic hazard; Seismological model

Introduction

Bayesian statistics are related to Bayes’ rule after Thomas Bayes, a Presbyterian minister, probably born in 1701. Thomas Bayes’ fame rests in his paper “An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances” communicated to the Royal Society in 1763, after his death in 1761, by his friend Richard Price (1723–1791) (Bellhouse 2004). Bayes addresses the following question in his essay: “Given the number of times in which an unknown event has happened and failed: Required the chance that the probability of its happening in a single trial lies somewhere between any two degrees of probability that can be named (Bayes (1763), p. 376)” (Dale 1986; Edwards 1978). The question is answered in its famous Bayes’ model table problem (Bellhouse 2004).

Gillies (1987) calls this problem “Bayes’ billiard table example.”...

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, 352 Hollister, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA

    Alin C. Radu & Mircea Grigoriu

Authors
  1. Alin C. Radu
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  2. Mircea Grigoriu
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alin C. Radu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Risk & Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

    Michael Beer

  2. Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

    Ioannis A. Kougioumtzoglou

  3. Institute for Risk & Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

    Edoardo Patelli

  4. Institute for Risk & Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

    Ivan Siu-Kui Au

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Radu, A.C., Grigoriu, M. (2014). Bayesian Statistics: Applications to Earthquake Engineering. In: Beer, M., Kougioumtzoglou, I., Patelli, E., Au, IK. (eds) Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_278-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_278-1

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-36197-5

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