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Long Cycles and Anticipation

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Handbook of Anticipation

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Abstract

Relying on long cycles theorizing in order to anticipate future economic, politico-diplomatic, and security developments and turning points at the global level seems a twofold epistemological challenge. First, because the long cycles theory has not specifically been designed for such use. Most analysts have used it to illuminate historical trends but only very few to anticipate future events. Secondly, because the idea of long cycles assumes by default only the existence of a set of interrelated recurrent trends and repetitive patterns. That would be indeed what one could conclude about the subject at hand, at least at a prima facie analysis. However, a retrospective deeper analysis of the tentative predictive value of the long cycles theory, which could be enhanced by applying methods available to mark evolving trends and wild cards, would tell us a different story. It is the goal of this chapter to review key tenets of some of the main representative authors of the long cycles theory, with an emphasis on the Modelski model, in the view of highlighting its tentative predictive value and suggesting possible ways of enhancing it.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National University of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania

    Adrian Pop

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  1. Adrian Pop
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  1. Dept of Sociology & Social Research, University of Trento Dept of Sociology & Social Research, Trento, Italy

    Roberto Poli

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Pop, A. (2019). Long Cycles and Anticipation. In: Poli, R. (eds) Handbook of Anticipation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_85-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_85-2

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Chapter history

  1. Latest

    Long Cycles and Anticipation
    Published:
    04 December 2018

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_85-2

  2. Original

    Long Cycles and Anticipation
    Published:
    09 August 2017

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_85-1

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