Skip to main content

Anticipation in Built Environment Design

  • Living reference work entry
  • First Online:
Handbook of Anticipation

Abstract

Present times are characterized by increasing levels of unpredictability, uncertainty, and instability with a background of accelerated rhythms of change and of long-term economic, but also ideological, political, and spiritual crisis situations leading to frequent paradigm shifts. These circumstances render futures studies and anticipative processes particularly relevant, justifying a special attention to the subject. Taking a longer time to be shaped, the built environment is highly sensitive to current trends and is also implicitly related to the future. Besides, given its influence on people’s well-being and general performance, its optimal configuration may be considered as a general interest issue. Although it has been some time since theories in the field of anticipation were proposed, and under various names, their implementation at the territorial level is of a relatively recent date; hence, there are still important gaps to bridge.

This contribution investigates the possible applications of futures studies , and more specifically of the anticipative processes in the design and management of the built environment, with reference also to other contemporary concepts like sustainable development, strategic planning, resilience, and creativity.

The analysis is set out on the three scales judged as representative for scholars as well as for a general audience, namely, building, city, and territory. Taking the view that the association of built environment design and anticipation is particularly advantageous and productive, the authors aim to succinctly present different approaches and practical experiences in the field, while also providing several useful elements for the further development of the corresponding theory and applications.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Ackoff, R. L. (1977). Optimization + objectivity = optout. European Journal of Operational Research, 1(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(77)81003-5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adobati, F., & Olivieri, A. (2007). Agenda per uno scenario del Vimercatese. In A. Magnaghi (Ed.), Scenari strategici. Visioni identitarie per il progetto di territorio (pp. 212–221). Alinea: Firenze.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander, E. R. (2013). Values in planning and Design: A process perspective on ethics in forming the built environment. In C. Basta & S. Moroni (Eds.), Ethics, design and planning of the built environment (pp. 3–22). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. Retrieved from http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-5246-7_1

  • Ames, S. (2010). The new Oregon model: Envision, plan, achieve. Journal of Futures Studies, 2, 163–166.

    Google Scholar 

  • Appadurai, A. (1996). Modernity at large: Cultural dimensions of globalization. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Axelrod, R., & Cohen, M. D. (1999). Harnessing complexity. Organizational implications of a scientific frontier. New York: The Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Balducci, A. (2012). Quale pianificazione per i territori post-metropolitani? Una riflessione a partire dalla rottura del legame tra forme dell’urbano e confini amministrativi. Planum. The Journal of Urbanism, 25(2), 1–7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berger, G. (1957). Sciences humaines et prévision. Revue Des Deux Mondes, 3, 3–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Besio, M. (2007). Lo scenario strategico nella prospettiva dell’ecoregione urbana. In A. Magnaghi (Ed.), Scenari strategici. Visioni identitarie per il progetto di territorio (pp. 65–77). Alinea: Firenze.

    Google Scholar 

  • Casoni, G., & Fanzini, D. (2011). I luoghi dell’innovazione. Complessità management progetto. Roma: Maggioli Editore.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cerreta, M., Concilio, G., & Monno, V. (Eds.). (2010). Making strategies in spatial planning. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. Retrieved from http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-90-481-3106-8

  • Cetica, P. A. (2003). La scelta di progettare: paradigmi per una architettura della vita. Firenze: A. Pontecorboli.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiapponi, M. (1990). Ambiente: gestione e strategia: un contributo alla teoria della progettazione ambientale (2nd ed.). Milano: Feltrinelli.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cinquegrani, R. (2012). L’approccio per scenari tra passato, presente e futuro. In R. Poli & S. Arnaldi (Eds.), La previsione sociale: Introduzione allo studio dei futuri (pp. 133–148). Roma: Carocci.

    Google Scholar 

  • Comi, A., & Whyte, J. (2017). Future making and visual artefacts: An ethnographic study of a design project. Organization Studies. https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840617717094.

  • Cremaschi, M. (2015). Metropoli attraverso la crisi (Sintesi del Rapporto sulle cittá 2015). urban@it Centro nazionale di studi per le politiche urbane. Retrieved from http://www.urbanit.it/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/150930-Urbanit_Rapporto_2015_Sintesi.pdf

  • Di Battista, V. (2006). Towards a systemic approach to architecture. In G. Minati, E. Pessa, & M. Abram (Eds.), Systemics of emergence: Research and development (pp. 391–398). New York: Springer US. Retrieved from http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/0-387-28898-8_27

  • Dobson, S., & Jorgensen, A. (2014). Increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of cities through entrepreneurial urbanism. International Journal of Globalisation and Small Business, 6(3–4), 149–162. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGSB.2014.067508.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • European Commission, Directorate General for Regional Policy. (2011). Cities of tomorrow. Challenges, visions, ways forward. European Commission. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/archive/conferences/citiesoftomorrow/index_en.cfm

  • Fabian, L., Bozzuto, P., Costa, A., & Pellegrini, P. (2008). Storie del futuro. Gli scenari nella progettazione del territorio (Vol. 1). Roma: Officina Edizioni.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fanfani, D. (2007). Gli scenari strategici nel dibattito internazionale e nell’approccio statutario e identitario del governo del territorio. In A. Magnaghi (Ed.), Scenari strategici. Visioni identitarie per il progetto di territorio (pp. 15–32). Firenze: Alinea.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fanzini, D., Bergamini, I., & Rotaru, I. (2013). Sustainability, culture and urban regeneration: New dimensions for the technological project. TECHNE – Journal of Technology for Architecture and Environment, 5, 60–65. https://doi.org/10.13128/Techne-12802.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fontanella, E. (2015). Modificazione come forma di durata. Patrimonio architettonico e urbano tra cura e trasformazione. In M. Marzo & L. Fabian (Eds.), La ricerca che cambia: Atti del primo convegno nazionale dei dottorati italiani dell’architettura, della pianificazione e del design (pp. 302–314). Italy: LetteraVentidue Edizioni.

    Google Scholar 

  • Forest City. (2015). Retrieved 31 Aug 2017, from https://www.stefanoboeriarchitetti.net/en/portfolios/forest-city/

  • Formia, E., & Celaschi, F. (2014). Estetiche del futuro come estetiche dei contrasti. Una proposta per un processo design driven di costruzione condivisa di scenari futuri. In A matter of design. Making society through science and technology. Retrieved from http://www.stsitalia.org/conferences/ocs/index.php/STSIC/AMD/paper/view/350

  • Franceschini, A. (Ed.). (2014). Cinque interviste: Maurizio Carta, Alberto Cecchetto, Alberto Clementi, Carlo Gasparrini, Mosè Ricci. In Sulla città futura: verso il progetto ecologico. Trento: LISt Lab.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fusco Girard, L. (2014). The regenerative city and wealth creation/conservation: The role of urban planning. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 13(2/3/4), 118. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGENVI.2014.064500.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gangemi, V. (2006). Cultura Architettonica e Pensiero Sistemico. In G. Minati, V. Di Battista, & G. Giallocosta (Eds.), Architettura e approccio sistemico (pp. 134–141). Milano: Polimetrica.

    Google Scholar 

  • Geels, F. W. (2002). Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: A multi-level perspective and a case-study. Research Policy, 31(8), 1257–1274. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(02)00062-8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Godet, M. (1997). Manuel de prospective stratégique. Une indiscipline intellectuelle (Vol. 1). Paris: Dunod.

    Google Scholar 

  • Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and piftalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 3–22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Godet, M., Durance, P., Gerber, A. (2009). Strategic foresight-la prospective. Use and misuse of scenario building (research working paper). Paris: LIPSOR/CNAM.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gollmitzer, M., & Murray, C. (2008, March). From economy to ecology: A policy framework for creative labour. Ottawa: Canadian Conference of the Arts. http://ccarts.ca/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/CREATIVEECONOMYentiredocument.pdf

  • Hanckock, T., & Bezold, C. (1994). Possible futures, preferable futures. Healthcare Forum Journal, 37, 23–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hristova, S., Šešić, M. D., & Duxbury, N. (2015). Culture and sustainability in European cities: Imagining Europolis. New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Khanna, P. (2016). Connectography: Mapping the future of global civilization. New York: Random House Publishing Group.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kushner, M. (2015). The future of architecture in 100 buildings. New York: Simon & Schuster/ TED.

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnaghi, A. (Ed.). (2007). Scenari strategici: visioni identitarie per il progetto di territorio. Firenze: Alinea.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mascarucci, R. (Ed.). (2004). Vision: territori d’Europa. Roma: Meltemi.

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller, R., Poli, R., & Rossel, P. (2013). The discipline of anticipation: Exploring key issues, Unesco Working Paper no. 1. Paris. Retrieved from http://www.academia.edu/3523348/The_Discipline_of_Anticipation_Miller_Poli_Rossel_-_DRAFT

  • Moser, C. (2013). Architecture 3.0: The disruptive design practice handbook. New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mussinelli, E. (2008). Il marketing territoriale dell’Oltrepò Mantovano: contesti, strategie e progetti. In R. Trocchianesi, G. Casoni, & D. Fanzini (Eds.), Progetti per lo sviluppo del territorio: marketing strategico dell’Oltrepò Mantovano (pp. 11–21). Santarcangelo di Romagna: Maggioli.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordlund, G. (2012). Time-scales in futures research and forecasting. Futures, 44(4), 408–414. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.01.002.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peirce, C. S. (2010). The law of mind. In Peirce edition project (Ed.), Writings of Charles S. Peirce: A chronological edition, volume 8: 1890–1892 (Vol. 8, pp. 135–157). Bloomington: Indiana University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poli, R. (2012). L’anticipazione e i suoi molti aspetti. In S. Arnaldi & R. Poli (Eds.), La previsione sociale. Introduzione allo studio dei futuri. Roma: Carocci editore.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poli, R. (2017). Introduction. In Introduction to anticipation studies (pp. 1–8). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63023-6_1.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ringland, G., & Schwartz, P. (1998). Scenario planning: Managing for the future. Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rousseau, F. (2015). Prospective territoriale. Etat de l’art (document de travail préparé pour le Futurcamp de la SFdP d’août 2015). Société Française de Prospective.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sacchi, L. (2010). Il futuro dell’architettura in ‘XXI Secolo’. In Treccani.it. Retrieved from http://www.treccani.it/enciclopedia/il-futuro-dell-architettura_%28XXI-Secolo%29/

  • Saporito, E. (2016). A case of complexity in urban planning: The PII Isola process in Milan. In Consensus building versus irreconcilable conflicts (pp. 53–70). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30829-6_3.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Schoemaker, P. J. (1991). When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration. Journal of Forecasting, 10(6), 549–564.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view. New York: Doubleday/Currency.

    Google Scholar 

  • Storey, D. (2013). Territory and territoriality. Retrieved from http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/display/id/obo-9780199874002-0076

  • Territorio. (2016). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://it.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Territorio&oldid=83165368

  • The New Urban Agenda. (2017). Retrieved 4 July 2017, from http://habitat3.org/the-new-urban-agenda/

  • Tonkinwise, C., Kossoff, G., & Irwin, T. (2015). Transition design: An educational framework for advancing the study and design of sustainable transitions. Presented at the 6th International Sustainability Transitions (IST) Conference, University of Sussex, Sussex. Retrieved 9 June 2017, from http://design.cmu.edu/sites/default/files/Transition_Design_Monograph_final.pdf _

  • Van Der Veen, E. (2015). De Ceuvel. Retrieved 27 Aug 2017, from https://amsterdamsmartcity.com/projects/the-ceuvel#team

  • Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • What is the Ceuvel. (n.d.). Retrieved 27 Aug 2017, from http://deceuvel.nl/en/about/general-information/

  • Wiek, A., & Iwaniec, D. (2013). Quality criteria for visions and visioning in sustainability science. Sustainability Science, 9(4), 497–512. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-013-0208-6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wisner, V. (2013). La prospective appliquée aux projets territoriaux de développement durable. TEDDIF (territoires, environnement et développement durable en Île-de-France). Retrieved from http://www.teddif.org/spip.php?article217

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Daniele Fanzini .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG

About this entry

Cite this entry

Fanzini, D., Rotaru, I., Bergamini, I. (2018). Anticipation in Built Environment Design. In: Poli, R. (eds) Handbook of Anticipation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_44-1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_44-1

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-31737-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-31737-3

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Religion and PhilosophyReference Module Humanities and Social SciencesReference Module Humanities

Publish with us

Policies and ethics