Information About Likely Combat Success

Synonyms

Combat; Deception; Overconfidence; Performance enhancement; Sex differences; War

Definition

The same psychological strategies that often lead to unnecessary war may often prevent war as well when overconfidence and bluffing encourage others to back down rather than fight.

Introduction

If both sides in combat made accurate assessments of their likelihood of success, war should not have to occur at all from a classical economic notion of rationality. If one side believes it is going to lose, it should not fight unless attacked but rather should make accommodations to the dominant side that preserve more life and treasure than would likely be lost in war. However, given the endemic nature of war, such accurate calibration clearly does not take place much of the time. But if that is the case, then the puzzle for evolutionary models is why so many people make so many mistakes so much of the time in making decisions about their likelihood of victory in combat. In other words, as...