Introduction to Practical, Historical, and Philosophical Instances of Probability

Abstract

The confluence of practical, historical, and philosophical instances of probability is represented, here, as a problem. A simple problem, really, but the investigation of said problem is purposely presented in a manner that raises practical, historical, and philosophical problems. In this instance, while solving the problem, different individuals differently become privy to different information. At first glance, no problem. Upon further inspection, probabilistic implications are revealed. Afterall, while, yes, the Four of Hearts is the Four of Hearts, it is also a four of hearts. In other words, it is, concurrently, many things (not a queen, a four, a red card, not a spade, etc.). This information, while appearing mundane, becomes important to consider when examining different answers to the problem. As one might expect, having two people, standing right next to or across from each other, both staring at the same deck of cards, but with different probabilities that the next card drawn is a queen, can be a recipe for disaster. It can also be a window into how information about events is interpreted and shared. A probabilistically rooted answer to an enduring question: Do you see what I see? Well, let’s do the math.