The Taita Hills are located in the Taita–Taveta County within the coastal region that lies in South Eastern Kenya. The hills form the northernmost part of the 850-km2 stretch of the Eastern Arc Mountains in Kenya and lie within the Tsavo ecosystem which is mainly semiarid. The hills extend through different altitudinal zones depicting different agro-ecological zones within the area (Fig. 3).
Climatic and non-climatic factors interact to make the Taita Hills vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. According to Waithaka et al. (2013), some of the visible changes associated with climate change and variability in the area include the degradation of soils from moisture stress and high temperatures, limited rainfall as observed in the reduction of the volume of water in rivers, and increased frequency of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, among others. According to the GoK (2017), the Taita Hills experience two major rainfall seasons: the long-rains season experienced between March and May (MAM) and the short-rains season experienced between October and December (OND), which in turn give rise to two planting seasons. Farmers rely on both seasons for the cultivation of their staple crops. However, the short-rains season has been noted to be more reliable than the long-rains season (GoK 2017). This is because the long-rains season is characterized by, among other factors, unreliable rainfall patterns, whereby the onset of rain is delayed and cessation occurs very early in the season.
Non-climatic factors, such as high population growth, high poverty levels, poor farming methods, deforestation, and low use of technology, also have negative impacts on the status of agricultural resources, such as land and water. Due to the high rates of population growth, the area is currently characterized by small fragmented land holdings that are cultivated frequently with minimal conservation efforts, thus resulting in highly degraded soils with low fertility (Maeda 2012). A study by Muya et al. (2019) in the Taita Hills showed that in the maize-based and horticultural systems that are intensely cultivated, the amount of soil C was very low (1.6%) compared with soils under forests where the amount of C was about 7.6%. The land use intensity (LUI) in horticulture and maize-based systems was found to be over 30% compared with the LUI in forest systems (less than 2%). A similar trend was observed in the productivity index (PI), with the highest (40–50%) being recorded in natural forest and grassland and the lowest (15–20%) in horticultural and maize-based systems. The study concluded that the low soil quality and low productivity in horticulture and maize-based systems were associated with the intensification of land use as a result of inadequate knowledge on the appropriate management practices to apply. High poverty levels and lack of information cause people to engage in unsustainable practices, such as deforestation and poor farming methods, which result in land degradation. In the areas that have undergone deforestation, soil erosion has been indicated to be a major problem, with most of the terrain characterized by deep gullies.
Climatic Variability in the Taita Hills
Analysis of rainfall data for the County showed an overall declining trend in the amount of rainfall received in the various agro-ecological zones since the 1960s. The time series plot for Wundanyi (mid-altitude agro-ecological zone) showed a decline in the amount of rainfall received, the average for the years between 1993 and 2006 being less than 600 mm. This is an area that initially received between 900 and 1200 mm of rainfall per season, thus indicating a large deficit in the mentioned years (Fig. 4).
The time series analysis of Maktau in the lower zone shows the highest amount of rainfall recorded to be 626.4 mm in 1967; otherwise, there is a general declining trend in the years following 1967, with most of them receiving less than 350 mm of rainfall. This is below the average precipitation range for the lowlands which lies between 350 and 400 mm. Furthermore, the optimum rainfall condition for productive agriculture in the lowland areas is 450 mm, considering the maize variety grown. However, the time series shows the amount of rainfall received to be less than 450 mm for the period when rainfall was recorded in the weather station at Maktau (Fig. 5).
The time series analysis for the short rainy season (OND) also shows a general declining trend of observed rainfall in all the three agro-ecological zones. In the high-altitude zone, the average annual rainfall received is below 700 mm for an area that received more than 1000 mm in the past years. Similar trends are observed in the mid- and low-altitude agro-ecological zones where the average annual rainfall remains below 600 mm and 400 mm, respectively.
This is in agreement with the farmers’ perception of variations in rainfall. The respondents from the focus group discussions (FGDs) conducted in each of the three agro-ecological zones noted that they were aware of the changes in rainfall that had taken place in the Taita Hills area over the past 20 years. The most obvious changes in rainfall reported by the respondents included drought and erratic rainfall patterns characterized by late onset and early cessation of seasonal rainfall. More specifically, drought was reported to be the most serious event, as it usually results in the loss of the entire crop, whereas erratic rainfall patterns resulted in a decline in crop yield and food shortages. Similarly, studies on the Taita Hills by Mwalusepo et al. (2015) established that the farmers were aware of the climate variability and change within their localities and the perceived changes in rainfall regimes and temperatures as well as the implications on their livelihoods.
Drought has already been indicated as a threat to food security in Kenya and is reported by the GoK (2012) as an important cause of crop losses in the Taita Hills. Observations from the IPCC (2014) show that rainfall in East Africa is likely to increase in the twenty-first century, which will be indicated by an increase in the number of extreme wet days to roughly 20%. However, even if the amount of rainfall recorded in the preceding years increased, it may not translate to improved agricultural production because the projected increases in temperature will lead to high evapotranspiration rates, thus causing water scarcity. Farmers also noted significant temperature variation with the cycles for crops like maize getting shorter and bean farming particularly in the high altitude areas that were initially very cold becoming more favorable. The high temperatures have also been accompanied by an increase in the incidence of pests and diseases that causes the decline in productivity in both crops and livestock. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO (2016), the production techniques that are part of conservation agriculture, for example, crop rotations and maintenance of a permanent soil cover, enhance soil and water conservation, thus enabling crops to withstand periods associated with rainfall variability and drought
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Crop Production Trends
The data from Osano et al. (2018) show that 80% of the total households in the Taita–Taveta County engage in maize production, 46% in bean crop production, and 31% in cowpea production. However, while the acreage under crop production has continuously increased, yields have continuously declined over the years due to climate change and other factors (Table 1). The overall productivity of major staple crops is very low, hence the need for better farming technologies and improved varieties. The maize crop in particular is highly sensitive to fluctuations in climate, with moisture and heat stress identified as the primary hazards for the crop.
Table 1 Short-rains crop production in the Taita–Taveta County in 2017 The land area under maize and cowpea cultivation during the 2017 short-rains season was near the long-term average (LTA), excluding the land area under green gram cultivation, which was 16% below the LTA (Osano et al. 2018). Despite the slight reduction in acreage under cultivation, the actual production of green grams was better than that of maize and beans. The 2017 short-rains seasons was also characterized by an 87% decline for maize production, 40% for bean production, and 13% for green gram production compared with the LTA (Table 1). The decline in maize production was attributed to late onset of the short rains, poor rainfall distribution both in time and in space, early cessation of rains, and crop damage caused by wildlife. Cowpea was affected by increased plucking of leaves by farmers for vegetable consumption, which negatively affected the yields and the crop’s growth, hence reducing the production.
The County is mainly dependent on short rains for crop production, whereas the long rains that have increasingly become unreliable contribute 20% of the food requirements in the County. Table 2 shows the production of maize, beans, and green grams, which are the major crops grown during the long rains. The area under maize, bean, and green gram production declined by 50%, 38.4%, and 28.3%, respectively, due to prior weather forecasts, indicating the possibility of reduced rainfall during the long rains. Poor performance of the preceding short-rains seasons also contributed to the farmers’ reluctance in cultivating large areas during the long-rains season (Muraguri and Nyamai 2017).
Table 2 Long-rains crop production in 2017 There was a significant decline in the production of all the three major crops: 75% for maize, 69.2% for beans, and 47.8% for green grams. Such a decline is mainly attributed to poor rainfall distribution in time and space as well as late onset and early cessation of rainfall. This is in agreement with the findings from a household survey targeting 600 households in the area where respondents noted that food shortages are currently on the rise, and farmers do not obtain enough yields as they did in the past. The main reasons reported for this were climatic events, including erratic rainfall patterns, above- and below-average rainfall, strong winds, floods, and frost. Other factors mentioned were high occurrence of pests, such as bean aphids, bean weevils, and cutworms, soil factors especially poor soil fertility, poor agronomic practices, and lack of inputs. The decline in crop production is a clear indication that farmers need to adopt CA which has shown potential to increase production through the integrated management of available soil, water, and biological resources (FAO 2018). This reduces the vulnerability of crops to extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, thus sustaining crop production.
Soil-Related Constraints
Soils are the foundation for agricultural production, hence the need for their sustainable use and management. The fertility status of soil determines the level of crop yields achieved. According to the GoK (2014), soil degradation is a major challenge to agricultural production in the Taita Hills, which leads to a decline in soil fertility. Based on the results from the household survey (Table 3), 63.3% of the respondents considered their soils to be moderately fertile, 15% noted that it was poor, 18.7% reported their soils to be very fertile, whereas 3% did not know the fertility status of their soils. When asked whether there had been a change in the fertility of their soils considering the quantity of yields obtained over the last 10 years, 55.9% indicated that it had declined, 25.2% reported it remained the same, whereas 15.2% reported that it had improved. The key factors responsible for the decline in soil fertility include continuous ploughing reported by 22.9% of the respondents, drought reported by 13.5%, use of inputs mentioned by 13.7%, floods reported by 9%, and lack of inputs reported by 2.2%. Those whose soil fertility had improved attributed such an improvement to enhanced land use practices. However, a larger percentage (29.7%) did not know the reason for the decline in the fertility of their soils.
Table 3 Soil fertility status in the Taita Hills Although the use of farm inputs, such as improved seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, is essential to achieve optimum crop production, assessments at the county level show that such use is generally low in the County. The low rates of input use is attributed to a number of reasons, including high input prices, limited access due to the distance to markets, and failure to access inputs at the right time (GoK 2014). From the survey, the various inputs used in producing maize (staple crop) include commercial fertilizer reported by 24.2% of the respondents, improved seed variety reported by 35.9%, manure reported by 30.7%, and pesticides reported by 4.5%. However, the inputs used in common bean production were minimal, including commercial fertilizer reported by only 2% of the respondents, improved seed reported by 6.2%, manure reported by 4.7%, and pesticides reported by 0.2% of the respondents. Farmers attribute their constant low yields to the use of poor-quality seed, lack of fertilizer, and manure amendments during planting
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