Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining

2018 Edition
| Editors: Reda Alhajj, Jon Rokne

Election Forecasting: Scientific Approaches

  • Michael S. Lewis-Beck
  • Mary Stegmaier
Reference work entry
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-7131-2_63



Forecasting models

Econometric models that predict election results based on statistical relationships between macroeconomic and/or macro-political factors and election results

Political stock markets

These futures or betting markets allow investors to invest money, through the purchase and sale of shares in candidates or political parties. The election results determine the payoff for the investors

Prescientific election forecasts

Election predictions based on intuition, bellwethers, and other non-replicable procedures

Scientific election forecasts

Approaches that use replicable systematic quantitative approaches to predicting elections. These include polling, models, and stock markets

Trial heat polls

Public opinion polls that measure vote intention of the public on that day. The poll assesses the position of the competing...

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of IowaIowa CityUSA
  2. 2.Truman School of Public AffairsUniversity of MissouriColumbiaUSA

Section editors and affiliations

  • Talel Abdessalem
    • 1
  • Rokia Missaoui
    • 2
  1. 1.telecom-paristechParisFrance
  2. 2.Department of Computer Science and EngineeringUniversité du Québec en Outaouais (UQO)GatineauCanada