Encyclopedia of Malaria

Living Edition
| Editors: Peter G. Kremsner, Sanjeev Krishna

Predictive Malaria Epidemiology, Models of Malaria Transmission and Elimination

  • Isobel Routledge
  • Oliver J Watson
  • Jamie T Griffin
  • Azra C Ghani
Living reference work entry
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8757-9_79-1

Mathematical models of malaria transmission are tools which assist in the design and evaluation of malaria control and elimination programs and provide insight into the dynamics of malaria transmission. They range from simple sets of equations through to complex individual-based simulations. Models also have provided key metrics to quantify transmission and progress toward elimination, such as the basic reproduction number. In this chapter, we review past developments and applications of models to support and quantify progress toward malaria elimination and consider future challenges which models must address when informing modern elimination efforts.

Looking Back: Malaria Transmission Models in the Twentieth Century

The first mathematical model of malaria transmission was published in 1908 by Ronald Ross after being tasked with recommending methods for the prevention of malaria in Mauritius (Ross 1908). This model was based on an a priori description of how the prevalence of malaria...
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© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Isobel Routledge
    • 1
  • Oliver J Watson
    • 1
  • Jamie T Griffin
    • 2
  • Azra C Ghani
    • 1
  1. 1.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonLondonUK
  2. 2.School of Mathematical SciencesQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK