Encyclopedia of Malaria

Living Edition
| Editors: Peter G. Kremsner, Sanjeev Krishna

Predictive Malaria Epidemiology, Models of Malaria Control Interventions and Elimination

  • Oliver J Watson
  • Isobel Routledge
  • Jamie T Griffin
  • Azra C Ghani
Living reference work entry
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8757-9_146-1

Predictive models of malaria interventions are mathematical tools to assist in quantifying the impact of malaria control initiatives and to guide the development, implementation, and optimization of future control interventions. Modern predictive models of malaria control are the result of numerous developments during the twentieth century starting with the initial entomological thresholds for elimination defined by Ronald Ross (Ross 1908) (see “Predictive Malaria Epidemiology: Development and Application of Mathematical Models of Malaria Transmission to Support and Measure Progress Towards Elimination of the Parasite.”). The “one-size-fits-all” campaign (Pampana 1969) deployed during both the Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) (1955–1969) and the 1970s World Health Organization sponsored investigation within the Garki district of Nigeria highlighted the need for the heterogeneity in malaria endemicity to be considered within malaria control initiatives. The latter...

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© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Oliver J Watson
    • 1
  • Isobel Routledge
    • 1
  • Jamie T Griffin
    • 2
  • Azra C Ghani
    • 1
  1. 1.MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonLondonUK
  2. 2.School of Mathematical SciencesQueen Mary University of LondonLondonUK