Overview
Extant evidence indicates that individual perceptions of the certainty, severity, and swiftness of punishment have essentially no correlation with actual levels of those measures of risk prevailing in the area in which the individuals reside. This suggests that public policies that are designed to reduce crime by increasing the deterrent effect of punishment are unlikely to succeed because they are not likely, in general, to increase prospective offenders’ perception of the legal risks of committing crime. This does not mean that there are no deterrent effects of the threat of punishment, but only that variations in objective levels of punishment may not affect the magnitude of any deterrent effects that do exist.
Key Issues
There is now an enormous body of scholarly research on the question of whether higher levels of punishment for crime reduce rates of criminal behavior. While there are other mechanisms by which greater punishment levels could reduce crime, such as the...
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Recommended Reading and References
Andenaes J (1952) General prevention: illusion or reality? J Crim Law Criminol Polit Sci 43:176–198
Becker G (1968) Crime and punishment: an economic approach. J Polit Econ 76:169–217
Cook P, Norval M (1980) Research in criminal deterrence: laying the groundwork for the second decade. In: Michael T (ed) Crime and Justice: an annual review of research, vol 2. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Ehrlich I (1973) Participation in illegitimate activities: a theoretical and empirical investigation. J Polit Econ 81:521–565
Erickson M, Gibbs J (1978) Objective and perceptual properties of legal punishment and the deterrence doctrine. Soc Probl 25:253–264
Garofalo J (1981) Crime and the mass media. J Res Crime Delinq 18:319–350
Gibbs J (1975) Crime, punishment and deterrence. Elsevier, New York
Heckert A, Gondolf E (2000) The effect of perceptions of sanctions on batterer program outcomes. J Res Crime Delinq 37:369–391
Horney J, Marshall IH (1992) Risk perceptions among serious offenders: the role of crime and punishment. Criminology 30:575–592
Jacob H (1979) Rationality and criminality. Soc Sci Q 59:584–585
Kahneman D, Tversky A (1979) Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47:263–291
Kennedy D (1997) Pulling levers: getting deterrence right. Natl Inst Justice J 236:2–8
Kleck G (2003) Constricted rationality and the limits of general deterrence. In: Blomberg T (ed) Punishment and social control: enlarged second edition. Aldine de Gruyter, New York
Kleck G, Barnes JC (2013) Deterrence and macro-level perceptions of punishment risks: is there a “collective wisdom?”. Crime Delinq (in press)
Kleck G, Sever B, Li S, Gertz M (2005) The missing link in general deterrence research. Criminology 43:623–660
Lochner L (2007) Individual perceptions of the criminal justice system. Am Econ Rev 97(1):444–460
Marsh HL (1989) Newspaper crime coverage in the U.S., 1983–1988. Crim Justice Abstr 21:506–514
Matsueda R, Kreager D, Huizinga D (2006) Deterring delinquents: a rational choice model of theft and violence. Am Soc Rev 71:95–122
Nagin D (1998) Criminal deterrence research at the outset of the twenty-first century. In: Michael T (ed) Crime and justice, vol 23. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Page BI, Shapiro RY (1992) The rational public. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Parker J, Grasmick H (1979) Linking actual and perceived certainty of punishment: an exploratory study of an untested proposition in deterrence theory. Criminology 17:366–379
Paternoster R (1987) The deterrent effect of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment: a review of the evidence and issues. Justice Q 4:173–215
Paternoster R, Piquero A (1995) Reconceptualizing deterrence: an empirical test of personal and vicarious experiences. J Res Crime Delinq 32:251–286
Paternoster R, Saltzman L, Chiricos T, Waldo G (1982) Perceived risk and deterrence: methodological artifacts in perceptual deterrence research. J Crim Law Criminol 73:1238–1259
Paternoster R, Saltzman L, Chiricos T, Waldo G (1985) Assessments of risk and behavioral experience: an exploratory study of change. Criminology 23:417–436
Phillips DP (1978) The deterrent effect of capital punishment: new evidence on an old controversy. Am J Soc 86:139–148
Piliavin I, Thorton C, Gartner R, Matsueda R (1986) Crime, deterrence, and rational choice. Am Soc Rev 51:101–119
Piquero A, Paternoster R (1998) An application of Stafford and Warr’s reconceptualization of deterrence to drinking and driving. J Res Crime Delinq 35:3–39
Piquero A, Pogarsky G (2002) Beyond Stafford and Warr’s reconceptualization of deterrence: personal and vicarious experiences, impulsivity, and offending behavior. J Res Crime Delinq 39:153–186
Pogarsky G, Piquero A (2003) Can punishment encourage offending? Investigating the resetting effect. J Res Crime Delinq 40:95–120
Pogarsky G, Piquero AR, Paternoster R (2004) Modeling change in perceptions about sanction threats: the neglected linkage in deterrence theory. J Quant Criminol 20:343–369
Pogarsky G, Kim KD, Paternoster R (2005) Perceptual change in the national youth survey. Justice Q 22:1–29
Roberts JV (1992) Public opinion, crime, and criminal justice. Crime Justice 16:99–180
Roshier B (1973) The selection of crime news by the press. In: Cohen S, Young J (eds) The manufacture of news. Constable, London
Simon H (1957) Models of Man. NY: Wiley
Stack S (1987) Publicized executions and homicide, 1950–1980. Am Soc Rev 52:532–540
Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185:1124–1131
Wood PB (2007) Exploring the positive punishment effect among incarcerated adult offenders. Am J Crim Justice 31:8–22
Zimring FE, Hawkins G (1973) Deterrence: the legal threat in crime control. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this entry
Cite this entry
Kleck, G. (2014). Deterrence: Actual Versus Perceived Risk of Punishment. In: Bruinsma, G., Weisburd, D. (eds) Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_408
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_408
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-5689-6
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-5690-2
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and Law