Synonyms
Definition
A base rate is a frequency or likelihood of an event occurring without intervention.
Description
Base rates are a statistic used to describe the percentage of a population that demonstrates some characteristic. Base rates indicate probability based on the absence of other information. Base rates developed out of Bayes’ Theorem.
An example of a base rate would be a professor who teaches a 7:30 a.m. statistics class. On a typical class day, approximately 25% of the class is not in attendance. The base rate for students who do not attend class is therefore 25%, and the base rate for students who do attend class is 75%. Thus the chance that any given student name listed on the roster will represent a student will be in attendance is 75%. It is important to remember that this statistic is made without any other given information other than the history of attendance.
In contrast, if you know that a particular student is a statistics major with a 4.0 grade point...
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Allen, M., Preiss, R. W., & Gayle, B. M. (2006). Meta-analytic examination of the base-rate fallacy. Communication Research Reports, 23(1), 45–51.
Barbey, A. K., & Sloman, S. A. (2007). Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes. Behavioral & Brain Sciences, 30(3), 241–254.
Beaman, C. P., & McCloy, R. (2007). From base-rate to cumulative respect. Behavioral & Brain sciences, 30(3), 256–257.
Hinsz, V. B., Tindale, S. R., & Nagao, D. H. (2008). Accentuation of information processes and biases in group judgments integrating base-rate and case specific information. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44(1), 116–126.
Krynski, T. R., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2007). The role of causality in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 136(3), 430–450.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
About this entry
Cite this entry
Davenport, T.L. (2011). Base Rate. In: Goldstein, S., Naglieri, J.A. (eds) Encyclopedia of Child Behavior and Development. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-79061-9_289
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-79061-9_289
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-0-387-77579-1
Online ISBN: 978-0-387-79061-9
eBook Packages: Behavioral Science